Afghan labour markets in trouble

Because of drought, in tandem with endemic poverty and under-development, only in Jalalabad and Kandahar can an average household (6 member families) with one able-bodied male provide adequately for their minimum food needs alone through urban labour markets.
This was disclosed in the new survey of casual wage labour issued by the World Food Programme (WFP) Afghanistan. WFP measures purchasing power by calculating how much wheat a worker can buy with a daily wage. Using this formula, WFP has revealed that purchasing power is down in all major Afghan cities, with the most serious decline in Faizabad (57%), Herat (50%), and Mazar (32%).

Afghanistan's urban poor households rely for between 73% and 100% of their income on wage labour. Urban labour markets mainly provide work in construction and trade. Many drought-affected families are now looking for work in urban labour markets, and there are a large number of men newly in search of work in cities who have not done so in the past. The study found that 37% and 78% of men seeking employment have 'migrated' to urban centres from rural areas, with Kabul attracting the largest proportion of migrant workers.

The weakest urban labour markets in the country are in Mazar and Herat. If all labour wages are spent on only wheat, a worker in Mazar earns only enough to feed themselves and one other person, while in Herat those earnings will feed less than two other people. The study attributes the depressed labour market in Mazar partly to the closure of the Uzbek border to the north. This has turned Mazar from being a 'strategic link' between large economies into a city that receives goods shipped to it on poor, seasonal roads and with nothing of significance to be shipped out in return. The cost of goods is high and the economy can no longer adequately support the population that lives there even in a good year.

Herat's labour market has also dramatically declined. This provincial capital is one of the two most economically active cities in the country. It is within a day's drive of two international trading partners (Iran and Turkmenistan) with access to cheap goods including the least expensive wheat in the country. Moreover, there are still tens of thousands of Afghan migrant workers in Iran. Despite these strengths, which helped make Herat the most affluent city in the country as recently as seven months ago, Herat is presently unable to keep pace with the increasing strain being placed on it by a desperate rural population. Newcomers to the labour market are, by far, the highest in the country (77%), availability of labour lowest (36%), and the fall in 'real' value of earning from last year the largest (49%).

The city is currently home to approximately 45,000 persons recently displaced by severe drought in western Afghanistan.

The study notes the average wages received by casual labourers in the main cities are down, in real terms, by between 4 and 49 per cent compared to one year ago. Job seekers in Mazar, in desperation for work, reportedly accept as a last resort a daily wage equivalent to only US$ 0.36 (36 cents).

Further polarisation in cereal prices and labour wages, and hence labouring families' food security, are anticipated as the winter approaches.

For further information, please call Pippa Bradford, WFP Afghanistan 2828934 x 206 or 2273498; Stephanie Bunker, 2211451 x 415; mobile 0320 261325