Afghanistan: Dry Spell Monitoring - May 2024

Heavy precipitation from April through mid-May has alleviated seasonal precipitation deficits across much of the country. By late May, seasonal precipitation totals ranged from 110 to 125 percent of the 40-year average in southern and southeastern regions. In other parts of the country, precipitation conditions varied from average to below average, with totals between 75 and 110 percent of the 40-year average.

Typically, the wheat harvest starts in the second week of April in the southeastern and southern regions. According to key informants, the wheat harvest has been delayed by 2-3 weeks due to the extensive precipitation since April and the resulting saturated soils in various parts of the country. Reports indicate that the wheat harvest has commenced in the southern, eastern, and southeastern regions.

ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to transition rapidly from May to July 2024 to La Niña conditions from August to October 2024, with a likelihood of about 75 percent.