Afghanistan Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan 2024 (December 2023) [EN/Dari/PS]

Executive summary

Afghanistan continues to grapple with the consequences of four decades of conflict, entrenched poverty, climate-induced crises, and barriers to women’s equality and participation in public life. The economic downturn following the political transition in August 2021 – which coincided with a suspension of large-scale bilateral development cooperation on which the Republic depended – has exacerbated underlying fragilities, including limited livelihood opportunities for both urban and rural populations alike. Despite the significant reduction in active hostilities, Afghanistan remains primarily a protection emergency characterized by high-levels of protracted displacement, mine and explosive ordnance contamination, restrictions to freedom of movement, increased risk of gender-based violence (GBV), child labour, early marriage and increased needs for mental health and psychosocial support. At the same time, despite the withdrawal of international forces, Afghanistan is not immune to geo-political and regional dynamics with 1.9 million Afghans having returned to the country so far in 2023, including more than 471,000 from Pakistan since 15 September. Additionally, severe climate change effects have precipitated a widespread water crisis that leaves no corner of the country untouched, and has generated new food, health and nutrition needs. Lying on numerous fault lines, Afghanistan also remains vulnerable to earthquakes, having experienced nearly 400 in the past year including three 6.3 magnitude shocks in Herat Province in October, contributing to increased shelter needs. The exclusion of 1.4 million girls from secondary school, combined with low literacy rates overall, means that education needs persist and remain a critical priority.

In 2024, an estimated 23.7 million people – more than half of Afghanistan’s population –are projected to require humanitarian assistance. The fragile Afghan economy, heavily reliant on humanitarian aid and remittances, faces challenges exacerbated by the exclusion of women from economic activities. Restrictive policies continue to hinder women’s ability to access assistance and services, as well as negatively impact international community engagement and donor contributions. Bureaucratic hurdles and efforts to influence humanitarian programming, including restrictions on the participation of Afghan women staff, have contributed to delays in project registration and implementation, requiring time-consuming negotiations and workarounds to overcome.

The latter part of 2023 witnessed the return of hundreds of thousands of undocumented Afghans and refugees from Pakistan, triggered by a new policy affecting an estimated 1.3 million Afghans. This returnee crisis has strained border points and posed additional demands on limited resources among host communities, necessitating increased humanitarian assistance. A surge in returns is expected to continue, with projections indicating over 1.46 million Afghans from Pakistan and Iran will return in 2024.

Many returnees are arriving in areas already facing protracted displacement. Forty years of pervasive conflict has resulted in multiple waves of forced displacement within Afghanistan and across its borders, while recurring natural disasters have prompted further displacement. While conflict-related displacement has drastically decreased since 2021, an estimated 6.3 million individuals—roughly 1 in 7 Afghans—are experiencing long-term displacement, many who left their homes as early as 2012. This is the largest number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) in South Asia and the second largest worldwide. Protracted IDP households often live in Informal Settlements (ISETs) – displacement sites with no written, legal agreement for land usage – usually in or near major urban centres. Many ISETs households are at risk of eviction and in 2023 there were multiple incidents of threatened and actual forced eviction in predominantly urban-located informal settlements. The existing displacement and high numbers of returns highlights the need for durable solutions that support voluntary return, local integration, or resettlement elsewhere.

Afghanistan also faces a climate-induced emergency, with the country in the midst of its third consecutive year of drought-like conditions, following the worst drought in 30 years in 2021/2022. Rising temperatures are rapidly altering precipitation patterns across the country, diminishing people’s access to water. Increases in drought related shocks were reported in 15 out of 34 provinces, with the highest increases reported in Parwan, Kunar, Baghdis, Baghlan, and Samangan compared to last year. Anticipated El Niño conditions in late 2023 and early 2024, which may offer some opportunities for drought recovery, also pose risk of flooding and crop pests. Water and sanitation conditions are sub-optimal, with little prospect of immediate improvement.

The 2024 humanitarian response in Afghanistan prioritizes the comprehensive needs of 23.7 million people, of which 17.3 million will be targeted for assistance. Key priorities include providing food aid, safe drinking water, healthcare, and education; and addressing acute water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) needs. The protection of vulnerable groups, especially women, girls, boys and those living with disabilities, remains paramount, involving safe spaces, legal support, psychosocial services, and long-term resilience initiatives.

Limited funding has and will continue to force humanitarian actors to prioritize those most vulnerable and in need, including those living in the same community and will require context and conflict sensitive programming to manage. Greater delineation between humanitarian and basic human needs interventions, including when and where they begin, will also be crucial in delivering an efficient and effective response, especially to returnee caseloads. Deterioration of civilian infrastructure, including hospitals, water and sanitation systems, roads, bridges and dams, has a compounding impact on humanitarian needs, necessitating investments in sustainable livelihoods and infrastructure to build resilience.

Realizing a transformative shift from traditional humanitarian assistance to a focusing on basic human needs and longer-term, more sustainable programming, will require efforts that centre on deepening the linkages between humanitarian and development action. Without this, it will not be possible to move from repetitive (annual) cycles of humanitarian relief to greater self-sufficiency of communities to secure and maintain their own wellbeing and livelihoods.