Anticipatory Action Framework: Bangladesh Monsoon Floods - 2023 Version

Approved by the Resident Coordinator on 3 August 2023

Endorsed by the USG/ERC OCHA on 14 August 2023 (contacts updated in May 2024)

Introduction

In January 2023, the Under-Secretary-General and Emergency Relief Coordinator (USG/ERC) granted a request by Resident Coordinator in Bangladesh to continue OCHA’s support in facilitating and financing coordinated anticipatory action in line with the HCTT strategy to increase the geographic reach and to expand to other hazards.

Extensive anticipatory action experience has been built over the past few years in Bangladesh for a variety of hazards. Regarding monsoon river floods, the Bangladesh Red Crescent Society (BDRCS) pioneered the approach in 2015, developing trigger-thresholds and Early Action Protocol (EAP). A previous coordinated anticipatory action framework triggered in 2020 which yielded extensive learning and evaluations providing a basis for the improvement of the framework ever since. Furthermore, an Anticipatory Action Technical Working Group exists within the HCTT structure, complementing a government-led group. This framework is also a contribution to the United Nations Secretary-General’s Early Warning for All initiative (EW4All).

This framework for coordinated anticipatory action for monsoon floods in Bangladesh is based on previous experience, expanding the reach in the Jamuna River basin and adding the Padma River basin to be covered.

Risk/Hazard

Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to climate-related shocks and stresses, including monsoon flooding events. Monsoon floods usually occur April to September with peaks between June and September. In an ‘average’ year, approximately one quarter of the country is inundated. Every four to five years, there is a very severe flood, with climate change changing the predictability and severity of these events.

With the support of the Government, Bangladeshi society has developed a remarkable level of resilience and adaptation to seasonal flooding. However, in some years, flooding is more intense and surpasses the ability of communities to cope, leading to deaths and the destruction of key infrastructure, livelihoods, and homes. This in turn creates widespread humanitarian needs with longer term development consequences.

At a later stage, the framework will also include anticipatory action for cyclones which usually occur May to June and October to November.

Anticipatory action

By using early warning systems and scientific advances in predicting disasters, anticipatory action maximizes the window of opportunity between the moment of prediction and the arrival of a forecasted shock to trigger interventions that prevent or mitigate imminent humanitarian impacts.

Anticipatory action is defined as acting ahead of predicted hazards to prevent or reduce acute humanitarian impacts before they fully unfold. Anticipatory action works best if triggers and decision-making rules (the model) and activities (the delivery) are pre-agreed to guarantee the fast release of pre-arranged financing (the money).

In line with best practices for anticipatory action, this framework pre-agrees the forecasting trigger and the activities which are complemented by re-arranged financing. In addition, documenting evidence, monitoring and learning is part of the framework.