Ethiopia: Humanitarian Snapshot - May 2024

FOOD SECURITY

Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) and Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are expected to persist through September in many areas of northern Ethiopia and parts of the pastoral south and southeast, where humanitarian food assistance is significant and likely preventing worse outcomes. In many neighboring areas households are expected to continue to face moderate to extreme difficulty accessing food and income for food purchases, and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected. In Tigray, more extreme outcomes will be anticipated if humanitarian food assistance and social support substantially decline or are disrupted for an extended period prior to the harvest in October.

DISPLACEMENT

An estimated 4.5 million people are currently displaced in both rural and urban locations, mainly in Somali, Oromia and Tigray regions. The majority of the displacements are due to conflict, which peaked in 2021.
About 56 per cent of IDPs have been displaced for more than one year, 23 per cent for two to four years and 11 per cent for five or more years.
Many IDPs, especially those living in protracted displacement can be assisted to return, relocate or locally integrate, according to assessments. It is important to note that 3.3 million IDPs have returned to their areas of origin since January 2022. However, due to ongoing displacement in several regions the number of IDPs today stands at 4.5 million.

DISEASE OUTBREAKS

Despite effective response efforts, Ethiopia struggles to control multiple disease outbreaks due to different factors, including weather-related events like flooding and drought, as well as unpredictable conflict situations impeding access to health care. Global shortages of supplies and lack of funding is limiting the ability to respond, including the availability of relevant vaccines to prevent or respond to disease outbreaks. Dynamic population movements are furthermore contributing to the continued spread of disease, including between different countries, such as Somalia, Sudan and South Sudan.

WEATHER FORECAST

The Kiremt season spans from June to September and is the primary rainy season for the northern half of Ethiopia, as well as its southwestern, central, and eastern parts of the country. Conversely, this period marks the dry season for the southern and southeastern lowlands. The rainfall reaches its peak in July and August, providing stability to the seasonal precipitation patterns over the western, southwestern, and certain central areas of the country. Recent and predictive climate models indicate that the upcoming Kiremt season in 2024 is likely to pivot from El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Neutral to La Niña episodes. This is associated with drought conditions in Southern and Southeastern parts of Ethiopia which receive rainfall during the Gu/Hageya season (October to December period).