Ethiopia - Situation Report, 10 Jan 2024

HIGHLIGHTS

• About 4 million people in drought-affected Afar, Amhara, Tigray, Oromia, South Ethiopia, & South West need urgent food assistance, according to the Government and Food Cluster.
• Overlap of food insecurity, high malnutrition rates with malaria, measles, and cholera outbreaks and livestock emergencies is worsening the situation in drought-affected areas.
• US$8 million allocated under the Ethiopian Humanitarian Fund, an OCHA-managed pooled fund, allows for multi-sector aid in Amhara, including drought response.
• Donors must frontload funding to scale up the response this January; money received from March-April 2024 will be too late for many as suffering & destitution will have deepened.
• An integrated multi-sectoral humanitarian response is urgently needed in drought-affected regions to avert a deterioration.

BACKGROUND

Situation Overview

Ethiopia is, once again, on the verge of a major humanitarian situation due to cycles of multiple, often overlapping crises, which severely weakens communities’ ability to cope. These crises are primarily driven by the convergence of four major factors: climate crises (flood and drought), armed conflicts, diseases, and economic shocks. The convergence of these shocks are pushing more people into displacement, food insecurity, malnutrition, disease outbreaks, and increased protection concerns amid rising global prices of essential commodities, inflation, and continual devaluation of the local currency. The education sector has also been affected due to conflict or floods, resulting in damaged or non-functional school facilities and millions of children missing school across the country. For example, in Amhara alone, more than 2.5 million children remain out of school because of the impact of the Northern Ethiopia conflict (2020-2022) and the ongoing armed hostilities in the region.

The humanitarian impact of climate crises

Drought and floods

Ethiopia is among the countries most susceptible to climatic shocks mainly drought and flooding, because of erratic rainfall patterns. The frequency and magnitude of these, are increasing and severely affecting the lives and livelihoods of millions of people. In Tigray, Afar, Amhara, and parts of the Oromia, Southern and Southwest regions drought is, once again, causing severe suffering. Close to 4 million people require urgent scale-up of multi-sectoral response, including food and nutrition assistance, according to the Ethiopia Disaster Risk Management Commission and the National Food Cluster. Regional authorities in Tigray and Amhara raised the alarm and alerted aid agencies to the severe humanitarian situation resulting from food insecurity and drought as early as mid-November and the end of December 2023. The current severe drought comes at a time when communities in the affected regions are still grappling with the lingering effects of the 2021-2023 drought and the devastating northern conflict (2020-2022) amid poor economic conditions. Erratic rains have impacted their crop and livestock production and slowed down their ability to recover as income from the sale of these plummeted. Scaled-up humanitarian response and resilience building are urgently required for the internally displaced persons (IDPs), vulnerable host communities and the returning IDPs.

Through the recent Multiagency Meher seasonal assessment in North Gondar, South Wello, North Shewa, Oromo Special Zone, North Wello, and Wag Hamra zones of Amhara Region, partners found that drought has affected nearly 1.7 million people. The results show that drought conditions in particular had a severe impact on agricultural productivity, exacerbating food insecurity and malnutrition, and resulting in human and livestock losses, which led people to resort to harmful coping mechanisms and displacement. In December, the Amhara authorities(1) alerted aid agencies of 43 woredas/ districts in nine zones having been affected by severe drought. Furthermore, 1.03 million(2) people lack access to drinking water due to 1,500(3) water points that have dried up or require rehabilitation and maintenance. For this reason, and due to damaged croplands, more than 4,000(4) people have migrated from their home base in Janamora and Telemt of the North Gondar Zone to larger towns. Drought also affects an estimated 2.4 million(5) livestock without water and feed, causing some 173,600 livestock to migrate while over 86,700 have perished. The education sector has also been affected due to the ongoing conflict in Amhara and the 2020-2022 Northern Ethiopia conflict, resulting in damaged or non-functional schools and 2.5 million out of school children according to the education cluster. Moreover, according to the Meher seasonal assessment (November – December 2023), 335 out of 1,625 schools and 156,252 out of 1,309,214 school-age population were affected with drought in North and Central Gondar zones since September 2023, start of the current academic year. High absenteeism was observed and increasing as the areas were facing food and school material shortages, as well as lack of clean water and sanitation in school facilities. Funding for emergency in education response remains critical. Support to rehabilitation for conflict damaged facilities and furniture, school feeding programmes and clean water and sanitation requires mobilization.

In Tigray, rain failure was recently assessed(6) to have caused severe drought in 36 districts in five zones: Southern, Eastern, Southeastern, Central, and Northwestern. Severe rainfall shortage, especially in areas bordering the Afarescarpment, was found to have affected the overall agricultural production, surface and groundwater resources, and other socio-economic conditions of the region. Crop and livestock losses have also been further worsened by the unusual rains, with crop damage and the loss of pasture and water for livestock. Out of the region’s total arable land (1.3 million hectares), only 49 per cent was planted due to drought and inaccessibility problems, and only 37 per cent of production was harvested during the Meher season. Currently, nearly 1.4 million** people** in Tigray need immediate emergency food because of the drought, starting January 2024. In addition, Tigray is home to close to a million IDPsfor whom humanitarian response is a lifeline. While the IDPs are living in collective sites and with host communities, thousands of others reside in 105 schools, thus hampering the reopening of the schools and increasing children’s exposure to protection risks. Regional authorities in Amhara and Tigray have stressed the rapidly deteriorating humanitarian situation due to drought and food insecurity and that catastrophic conditions could unfold if timely humanitarian assistance is not provided. The multi-sectoral response must be immediately scaled up in these areas to avert a significant destitution for families.

Some parts of Ethiopia, mainly southern and southeastern areas of Somali, South Ethiopia, South West Ethiopia, and Oromia regions, are emerging from five consecutive seasons of below-average rain, with the March-May 2022 rainy season being the driest on record in the last 70 years. This left 17.2 million people in Ethiopia requiring lifesaving assistance in 2023. Meanwhile, most of these areas received heavy rains in the Bega/Deyr/Hageya season (October – December 2023), causing floods that affected at least 1.5 million people and displaced over 616,000 people. Cessation of rains has seen an improvement in movement and humanitarian access, and the return of over 400,000 flood-affected IDPs in the Somali Region to their places of origin by the end of December 2023, but they need assistance to repair their damaged homes and restore livelihood. Please refer to this update for more on the floods. More than 3,100 people remain as flood IDPs in Cherati of Afder Zone, Somali Region. They cannot return since the floods destroyed their homes, and the regional government is seeking support to relocate them to an alternative land since their original village is prone to flooding. Floods have also affected the education sector in the Somali region with the disruption of the schooling of over 66,000 children (32.3 per cent girls) and damage/destruction to school infrastructure (56 out of 146 flood-affected schools). The scale of damage to the schools and the reported sheltering of IDPs on school grounds will prevent thousands of children from returning to school. School feeding, providing school materials, and rehabilitating damaged schools will facilitate more children's resuming learning.

The Ethiopian government and humanitarian partners are stepping up life-saving efforts in the most affected areas across the country despite severe resource constraints and operational challenges, including active hostilities in some areas. Out of 20.1 million people(7) targeted for food and cash assistance at the start of 2023, over 18 million people received food assistance at least once between January and October 2023; about 7.3 million most prioritized people were also reached between May and November, more specifically, 3.7 million people with food and cash support from the Government and 3.6 million people in Shock Response Safety Net Program supported by the World Bank. Since mid-December, with the resumption of the USAID-funded food assistance, partners have provided food aid and cash support to approximately six million people in the Amhara, Tigray, Somali, and Afar regions. Some US**$8 million** was allocated in November under the Ethiopian Humanitarian Fund (EHF), for response in Amhara Region. Nevertheless, deepening food, nutrition, water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH), protection, health, agriculture, and livelihoods needs dwarf these efforts as pockets of similar needs can be found in Oromia, Southern and Southwest regions. Partners continue to call on donors to provide resources to enable an urgent large-scale multisector response to reach close to 4 million people in the first half of 2024.

Malnutrition update

Severe drought conditions, deteriorating food insecurity, and lack of access to water drive high levels of acute malnutrition, and a large-scale multisector response is urgently required. Food insecurity is posing a threat to an already dire situation as Amhara, Afar, Tigray, and other regions face very high/critical Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) rates beyond the emergency threshold (>15 per cent). In a statement on 7 December, the Nutrition Cluster warned that the deteriorating food insecurity crisis in the Tigray Region threatens to worsen the nutritional status of the already vulnerable populations, especially in areas affected by failed or untimely rains. Such areas include Abergele Yechila, Raya Azebo, Atsibi, Tsirae Wonberta, Tsaeda Emba, Saesie, Gantafeshumn, Maytsebri town, Dima, and Tselemti woredas. A SMART survey conducted in Moyale District of Borena Zone in the Oromia Region revealed a GAM and Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM) prevalence of 9.2 per cent and 0.5 per cent, respectively. In comparison, another assessment in the Borana-Guji cattle Pastoral livelihood zone showed GAM and SAM of 13.7 per cent and 0.9 per cent, respectively. An assessment conducted in Janamora and Telemt districts of North Gonder in the Amhara Region revealed a high proxy GAM and SAM. In the Afar Region, a nutrition screening conducted in hard-to-reach areas and various districts reached 40,000 children. Of these, 4.3 and 42 per cent were identified with SAM and Moderate Acute Malnutrition (MAM), respectively. An indication of acute malnutrition was found among over half of 44,000 screened pregnant and lactating women (PLW). In other areas such as East and West Hararghe zones, as well as those hosting internally displaced people, including among IDPs in Tigray, malnutrition rates are also reported to be very high. Even though the Somali Region is currently not drought-affected, malnutrition is on the rise, mainly in the region’s Dolo Ado and Bokolmayo districts in Liban Zone, recently affected by floods, and the farmlands damaged as a result, hence raising food security concerns.

Humanitarian partners continue to deliver assistance amid limited resources and access challenges in some areas. At least **64 **mobile health and nutrition teams (MHNTs) supported by 16 nutrition partners have provided significant health services to internally displaced persons (IDPs) and conflict-affected people in the Amhara Region. In the Tigray Region, where nutrition response was threatened by lack of funding, nutrition partners have reported that new measures are being taken to address the huge MAM gap. Overall, between January and October 2023, more than 166,000 children received nutrition treatment across the country. Additional resources and unimpeded access will enable partners to scale up integrated multi-sector response in the worst-affected regions.

Scaling up food response

The resumption of the USAID-funded food distribution in mid-December, after several months of a pause, is helping to meet some urgent food needs. Distributions commenced in Amhara, followed by Tigray, Somali, and Afar regions, where food security partners target nearly 5.6 million people in 3,374 villages in 892 kebeles (of which 1.5 million people were targeted in December). In addition, since 6 October, food security partners completed the first and second cycle of distributions, reaching nearly 612,000 refugees across the country, and up to 45,200 of them received both in-kind and cash assistance. In Amhara, about 392,000 people in drought-affected North Gondar and Wag Hamra zones received food assistance as of 20 December. In Tigray, out of the planned in-kind food assistance caseload of 1.2 million people for the December 2023 cycle, more than 401,400 people have been assisted by food partners (non-government) since 21 December.

To provide urgent support to people in the areas experiencing drought conditions, complementing humanitarians’ ongoing efforts, the Ethiopian Government has reached over seven million people affected by conflict and drought in Tigray, Afar, Amhara, Oromia and Somali regions with close to 79,000 metric tons (MT) of food, and cash support of 1.4billion Ethiopian Birr (approximately $14.7 million).

The Government has also recently allocated 7,700 MT of food (cereals and Corn Soya Blend) for around 467,000 people in more than 30 districts in Tigray. The dispatch to the region started in the second week of December.Additionally, as of 3 December, over 131,000 people in Eastern, Central, and Northwestern zones and about a million people in the Central zone received cash assistance worth $16 million. The cash support is expected to help families meet their most essential needs, including food.

In the Afar region, over 253,000 people need emergency food assistance, according to the Ethiopia Disaster Risk Management Commission and the Food Cluster. However, the Afar region hosts an estimated 56,800 IDPs and about 222,900 returnees who are among those affected by drought. Livestock conditions reveal a dire situation characterized by a severe drought and depleted grazing lands. The scarcity of water and pasture is further compounded by the invasion of thorny bushes (Prosopis bushes), severely limiting feed resources for over 3.5 million livestock. Emergency vaccination/treatment and provision of animal feed are the critical interventions needed to mitigate the immediate impact of drought on livestock health and productivity, rehabilitating water sources and grazing lands for long-term resource availability and implementing restocking/destocking programs to balance herd sizes and manage resource scarcity is critical to rebuilding the resilience of the pastoralist communities. Over 663,600 people in 15 conflict-affected districts of Afar were targeted for government-emergency food assistance between June and December 2023, and only more than 208,800 of these were reached.

Food insecurity conditions are expected to linger for several months until the next meher/karma harvest season (October - September 2024) in the northern regions of Amhara, Tigray, Afar, and other areas. However, the food response is inadequate to cover the needs of the severely food-insecure people due to funding gaps. Funding for an urgent multi-sector response is required in food, nutrition, WASH (water, sanitation, and hygiene), especially access to clean water, livestock interventions, and agricultural inputs. For further information, please visit the Ethiopia: **Humanitarian impact of drought, **Flash update #1.

Update on diseases

The severe drought has caused the drying up of water sources, leading to serious water shortages in some areas compromising access to clean water, personal hygiene, and sanitation which may lead to a spike in diseases. Diseases such as malaria, measles, and cholera continue to be reported thus worsening an already dire humanitarian situation. Malaria, which is endemic in Ethiopia, has increasingly spread across the country recording 3.7 million(8)** cases** between 1 January and 17 December this year. Partners are working with public health authorities to provide medicine and anti-malaria supplies as well as vector control. In the most affected regions such as Oromia (1.09 million cases) and Amhara (over 987,000 cases) response is affected by insecurity, shortage of supplies, damaged health infrastructure, and limited road access. In the Gambela Region, where over 142,500 caseshave been reported, humanitarians are increasing partner presence to scale up the response. Overall, scaling up vector control to reduce mosquito populations and the distribution of bed nets remains key in curbing the spread of malaria in the country.

Between 1 January and 24 December, over 30,386(9)** measles** cases, including 233 deaths (0.77 per cent) were reported across Ethiopia, mainly from the five regions of SWEP (36 per cent), Oromia (23 per cent), Amhara (16 per cent) and Somali (10 per cent) representing 89 per cent of the cases. Of the 301 districts affected since August 2021, 234 have the outbreak under control, with measles currently active in 67 districts. Since January 2023, concerningly, more than half (54 per cent) of the cases were children under five years of age, 42 per cent of whom have not received any measles vaccination, which puts them at the highest risk of severe measles complications. In addition, strengthened routine immunization and access to health care are critical to controlling the outbreak and saving thousands of lives.

With regards to cholera, the outbreak continues to affect 11 regions with close to 29,380 cases, including 421 deathsand a cumulative case fatality rate (CFR) of 1.43 per cent between January and 23 December 2023, according to the Ethiopian Public Health Institute. Cholera has affected 306 districts across Oromia, South Ethiopia Region (SER), Central Ethiopia Region (CER), Sidama, Amhara, Afar, Benishangul Gumz, Dire Dawa, Harari, Somali, and Tigray (in order of highest to lowest number of reported cases). Somali Region remains at high risk of further spread due to recent floods that affected over a million people in the region alone, with over 470 cholera cases and 13 related deaths reported in flood-affected Kalafo district of Shabelle Zone. Situations in drought-affected areas also raise similar concerns. Over 7.5 million people have been vaccinated in six rounds of oral cholera vaccination (OCV) campaigns(10) this year as of mid-November. Additionally, partners support local authorities in case management, risk communication, community engagement, and WASH and infection prevention and control. While cholera has been controlled in 234 districts as of 23 December, these remain at high risk as they are in proximity to areas with active cholera cases. Response aimed at increasing access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities (to mitigate the risks associated with open defecation) would drastically contribute to sustainable control of the cholera outbreak. Overall, there is an urgent need for increased support for resilience building and investment in systems strengthening across health, water, and sanitation alongside the humanitarian response.

Supporting recovery

In southern parts of Oromia, local authorities and humanitarian partners are engaging in interventions that aim to accelerate recovery from the impact of the 2021-2023 drought through livestock multiplication for vulnerable families that lost household assets/ livestock. Multi-purpose cash transfer programmes under the EHF are also supporting 400 households in Borena Zone (Moyale and Dubluk districts). Additionally, an estimated 22.9 million Ethiopian Birr(about $ 409,768) were distributed to nearly 4,800 drought-affected households in three districts of Borena, East Borena, and Guji zones. In terms of food security, partners in December, resumed food distribution across 26 districts in six zones of southeastern Oromia, including Borena. Nearly 1.3 million people were affected by drought, and over 4 million livestock were lost due to a historic length and severity of drought in the Oromia Region and the below-average short rainfall season of October to December 2022, which set the stage for a record-breaking five-season drought, severely affecting both pastoralist and agro-pastoral communities. However, the latest assessment shows that nearly 551,000 people are currently affected by drought in Oromia. In the Southern Ethiopia Region (SER) and South West Ethiopia (SWEP) Region, humanitarian partners are providing recovery assistance to communities still experiencing the residual effects of the 2021-2023 drought, albeit limited due to lack of funding. More than 50,000 people in SER and nearly 29,000 people in SWEP are drought-affected.