Ethiopia - Situation Report, 23 August 2024

HIGHLIGHTS

  • Heavy Kiremt rains bring floods, landslides and destruction across several regions.
  • Drier-than-normal conditions projected for the October-December period heightening vulnerabilities in already food insecure areas.
  • Preparation for anticipatory action ongoing to allow assistance to reach people before the full effects of the drought are felt in the lowlands of south and southeast Ethiopia.

Situation Overview

Most areas that benefit from Kiremt rains across the country, including Benishangul Gumuz, Gambella, western, central and eastern Oromia, Southwest Ethiopia, South Ethiopia, Central Ethiopia, Tigray, Amhara, Afar, northern Somali, Dire Dawa, Harari, and Sidama are receiving normal to above normal rainfall, according to the Ethiopian Meteorological Institute (EMI). The season, typically spanning from June to September, has been beneficial for Meher crop production and improved water and pasture availability. Most regions exceeded planting targets as they received adequate rain for crop growth, according to the Ethiopia Disaster Risk Management Commission (EDRMC)(1). Conversely, there were several reports of overflow of rivers, flash flooding and landslides in at-risk areas since July, leading to displacements, deaths and damages to crops, properties and public infrastructure.

La Niña conditions anticipated to impact rainfall patterns from August 2024 to February 2025

Ethiopia’s diverse topography gives way to variances in temperature and rainfall patterns across different periods and geographic areas (Ref. Figure 1). Climatic phenomenon such as La Niña therefore have different impact on rainfall patterns across these variances.

La Niña condition this year is expected to strengthen Kiremt rainfall throughout the month of August. An alert issued by the Ethiopian Metrology Institute on 20 August warns of high risks of further flooding and landslides in most parts of the country until the end of the month, and called for mitigation measures, including timely dissemination of the warning to at-risk communities.

On the other hand, La Niña may induce periods of drought in agro-pastoralist and pastoralist areas reliant on the October–December Deyr/Hegaya rainy season.(2) Drier-than-normal conditions are projected by the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development’s (IGAD) Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) for the October-December Deyr/Hegaya seasonal rains in the lowlands of Somali, Oromia and Southern Ethiopia regions (Ref. Figure 1). The forecasted late onset and below normal rainfall will significantly impact water and pasture availability and the overall food security for an already food insecure population that is also battling several public health concerns such as a cholera and measles outbreaks.