The Greater Horn of Africa: Humanitarian Key Messages (February 2024)

The Greater Horn of Africa¹ faces a convergence of increasingly recurring and intensifying climate crises, mainly drought and flooding, conflicts, disease outbreaks, and economic shocks. These, including the impact of El Niño conditions, are driving millions of people into displacement, acute food insecurity and malnutrition, public health emergencies, and destitution. The region accounts for nearly 64 million people in need, one fifth of the people in need worldwide, mostly in Sudan and Ethiopia. And yet the humanitarian funding remains severely low. Urgent humanitarian resources, climate crisis mitigation measures, peace and security resolutions, and durable solutions, are desperately needed to avert large-scale humanitarian catastrophes in some areas.

KEY MESSAGES

1. With nearly 64 million people in need of humanitarian and protection assistance across the Horn of Africa, the region accounts for close to 22 per of the global humanitarian caseload in 2024, Sudan and Ethiopia alone, are two of the world’s five largest humanitarian crises. The Sudan crisis accounts for almost 40 per cent (25 million people) of the regional total, followed by Ethiopia (21 million), South Sudan (9 million) and Somalia (8.3 million).

2. Humanitarians have sounded alarm on escalating hunger in some countries in the region, due to climatic shocks and conflict. High levels of acute food insecurity are prevalent in various parts of the region, following the El Niño-induced f looding in 2023, five consecutive below-average rainy seasons that resulted in one of the worst droughts in recent history as well as ongoing conflicts and economic challenges. An estimated 58.4 million people were highly food insecure (IPC Phase 3+) in January 2024 in the region. There is a window of opportunity to avert large-scale humanitarian catastrophes in some areas, mainly in Sudan, Ethiopia, South Sudan, and Somalia, if funding is scaled up urgently and humanitarian access expanded.

3. Millions of children and women’s lives are at heightened risk of death and other long-term consequences due to high rates of malnutrition. Acute food insecurity, conflict, and a high prevalence of infectious diseases are contributing to high rates of malnutrition, aggravated by El Niño-induced flooding in 2023 and the lingering effects of the drought. This is in addition to poor feeding practices, limited access to health and nutrition services, and poor water hygiene and sanitation (WASH) practices. In northern Ethiopia, Global Acute Malnutrition rates exceed the 15 per cent emergency threshold; in Sudan the nutrition situation is critical with 700,000 children facing life-threatening malnutrition. In South Sudan and Somalia, over 1.65 million and 1.45 million children under five, respectively are acutely malnourished. Urgent response is needed alongside addressing immediate and underlying causes of malnutrition.

4. Multiple disease outbreaks, among them cholera, malaria, measles, and yellow fever, continue to pose a growing threat in the region, particularly in the context of acute food insecurity and malnutrition, and in overcrowded areas with limited access to water, sanitation, and hygiene, and poor living conditions. Scaled-up disease prevention and control measures are needed to curb morbidity and mortality, particularly among malnourished and food-insecure people in hotspot areas. Improving access to clean water sanitation facilities and promoting hygiene practices is critical to curb the outbreaks and save lives.

5. The Horn of Africa hosts one of the world’s largest displacement crises. Displacement is traumatic and life changing. Latest estimates show that the East and Horn of Africa and the Great Lakes regions are expected to host 23.6 million forcibly displaced people by the end of 2024, largely due to conflict and climate crises. The Sudan crisis accounts for a third of this number with Ethiopia already hosting nearly a million refugees and asylum seekers - the third largest refugee caseload in Africa. Displacement has uprooted people from their homes, separated families, and disrupted communities’ living conditions, health, security, livelihoods, and education, leading to further repercussions on their ability to contribute to their local economies, earn an income, sustain livelihoods, and invest in their socioeconomic development. If drivers of displacement remain unabated, the entire region tips into a humanitarian catastrophe.

6. Climate shocks (drought and flooding) have driven millions of people into destitution. Millions of people in the Horn of Africa are still struggling with the lingering effects of the severe and prolonged 2021-2023 drought (the worst in 40 years) as well as the impact of floods in the second half of 2023. Flooding caused additional livelihood loss in the drought-affected areas, including the death of some of the remaining emaciated livestock that survived the drought, and erosion of fertile lands, impacting agriculture. Recovery is expected to take between half to nearly a decade for those who lost between 80 to 100 per cent of their livelihood.

7. Current El Niño conditions continue to impact The Greater Horn of Africa. Some areas in Kenya, Somalia, southern Ethiopia, South Sudan, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, and north-western Tanzania are forecast to receive wetter-thannormal and long-term rainfall surplus. While rains boost livelihoods and water availability, they can also cause devastating f looding and trigger diseases. Drier-than-normal conditions are expected in eastern Tanzania and western areas of Ethiopia, Eritrea, and South Sudan resulting in food and water insecurity. Timely emergency preparedness, anticipatory action, and response planning are crucial as well as mainstreaming climate change impact analysis into development projects.