Anticipatory Action Framework Dry Corridor Guatemala

Summary

The purpose of this document is to present the framework for anticipatory action (AA) for drought in Guatemala that builds on the overall AA Framework for the Dry Corridor covering northern Central America, including Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, and Nicaragua. The AA Country Document contains an overall forecasting trigger (the model), the pre-agreed activation protocol and action plans (the delivery) and the pre-arranged financing (the money). This document details the crisis timeline, triggering system, priority Interventions per sector and targeting criteria of the most vulnerable people.

Drought in Guatemala

The last moderate to severe El Niño impact in northern Central America was in 2015 and 2016. Guatemala formulated a Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP) which, was not part of the Global Humanitarian Overview (GHO), intended to target 500,000 individuals (about half the population of Montana) along the Dry Corridor. Around 1.5 million people were in need at that time. Such a Plan mobilized around 25 million US dollars including projects focused on food assistance, acute malnutrition recovery, emergency health services, and WASH actions.

El Nino phenomenon has been forecast for Guatemala, starting in 2023 and beyond. The Country has started experiencing its impact in 2023 when rainfall amounts from May to July 2023 across the country was below normal. In some areas, above-normal rainfall was recorded (western Guatemala, Pacific coastal plains, and eastern Dry Corridor). Expected rainfall in late 2023 will be 10 to 20 per cent below normal along the Dry Corridor. The Dry Spell in July-August lasted between 25 to 30 days in most of the country and specific decreases up to 70 per cent were observed. Based on that situation, the National Civil Protection Office (CONRED) identified high risk for forest fires, loss of harvest, and drought among 5 states, including around 45 municipalities. CONRED issued an Orange Alert in august to mobilize resources to monitor harvesting, food prices, and rainfall behavior. The Ministry of Agriculture identified potential damage in 642,000 hectares along the Dry Corridor and Pacific Coastal Plains.

The Ministry of Agriculture has food reserves to support only 120,000 families in IPC Phase 4. WFP and FAO have already started a response under the concept of Anticipatory Action in the most vulnerable municipalities. The response has focused on monetary transfers, the provision of drought-tolerant seeds, and the provision of systems for collecting and managing rainwater.