Anticipatory Action Framework Dry Corridor Honduras

Summary

The purpose of this document is to present the framework for anticipatory action (AA) for drought in Honduras that builds on the overall AA Framework for the Dry Corridor that covers El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua and contains an overall forecasting trigger (the model), the pre-agreed activation protocol and action plans (the delivery) and the pre-arranged financing (the money).

In particular, this document details the crisis timeline, triggering system, priority Interventions per sector and targeting criteria of the most vulnerable people.

Drought in Honduras

El Niño is a climate pattern associated with warmer than average surface water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. It is the warm cycle of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, and can have impacts on rainfall patterns, cyclone activity, and temperature averages across the world. It is a recurring event that happens on average every two to seven years. The start of El Niño was officially declared in early July 2023 by WMO. As of mid-July 2023, El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean have strengthened gradually to a ‘moderate El Niño’. WFP estimates that El Niño could impact as many as 4.9 million people in the region.

In an El Niño period, there is a significant risk of below-average rainfall in the above-mentioned areas, which could severely impact agriculture, food, and water security in the country. Seasonal precipitation forecasts for the rainy season (that covers mid-May- mid October with a month-long interruption in July-Aug, the “Canicula") project below-normal rainfall, adversely affecting the planting and growing of the main maize cropping season. This situation may result in reduced yields, crop losses, an increased number of food, nutrition and water insecure people and overall humanitarian needs. Moreover, it leads to decreased water availability due to changing rainfall patterns, and a reduction in water table levels in municipalities of the Dry Corridor from 10% to 80%, as per a study conducted by UNICEF and partners in 7 municipalities of the Dry Corridor in 2019. The water shortage and a decrease in the availability of water for domestic use and human consumption, which leads to waterborne diseases or the lack of this vital liquid that affect vulnerable groups such as children under five years of age and pregnant women or women of childbearing age with greater intensity. Particularly vulnerable to climate change are the areas of dry corridor. Since 2001, these areas have suffered from irregular drought patterns due to changes in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In Honduras areas of concern are foreseen to be in need of humanitarian assistance as a consequence of El Nino impact.

According to the forecasts of the Center for Atmospheric, Oceanographic and Seismic Studies (CENAOS) the effects in the population could be severe in 2024. The Minister of National Risk and Contingency Management (COPECO) has maintained a red alert since 16 June in 140 municipalities in 10 of the 18 departments of the country. According to the latest forecasts presented by CENAOS, this number could increase even more if El Niño goes into a strong phase.