Malawi: Drought Flash Appeal July 2024 - April 2025 (July 2024)

Situation Overview

Malawi’s 2023/24 rainfall season, impacted by El Niño conditions was characterized by late onset and prolonged dry spells, particularly in the southern and central regions. These dry spells, some lasting greater than four weeks during the crucial January and February cropping season led to severe damage to crops and have negatively affected food production in Malawi, where over 80 per cent of the population depend on agriculture for their livelihoods.

In March 2024, President Lazarus Chakwera declared a State of Disaster in 23 out of Malawi’s 28 districts due to El Niño conditions. Between May and September 2024, approximately 4.2 million people will face acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above - ‘crisis’) with an additional 6.7 million people classified as IPC level 2 (‘stressed’). This means that 4.2 million people across the fourteen districts classified as IPC Phase 3 will struggle to meet their basic food requirements without depleting crucial livelihood assets or resorting to negative coping-measures. This situation is expected to deteriorate during the October 2024- March 2025 lean season with the Malawi Vulnerability Assessment Committee (MVAC) Assessment predicting that 5.7 million people (28 per cent of the population) will be in IPC Phase 3 or above. Some 19 out of the 28 districts and all four major cities in Malawi are projected to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3 or above) during this period. Results of the second round Agricultural Production Estimates Survey (APES) indicate a 16 per cent decline in agriculture production because of dry spells, floods and a fall army worm outbreak. An estimated 749,113 hectares, equating to 44.3 per cent of the national crop area of maize, the most consumed cereal in Malawi, have been affected by dry spells. This has resulted in a 17 per cent decrease in maize production compared to last year. Other grains such as rice, millet, sorghum, pulses, cassava, and groundnuts have also recorded decreased production levels. Consequently, most of the people in IPC Phase 3 or above have not been able to produce enough food and will have to rely on market purchases to meet their food needs.

Malawi continues to face high levels of inflation (32.3 per cent year-on-year inflation rate for April 2024) and elevated food prices with maize prices averaging 160 per cent above the five-year average. The devaluation of the Malawi Kwacha by 44 per cent since November 2023 and the high cost of agricultural inputs in 2023 have further exacerbated the situation for the poorest and vulnerable households. The devaluation and depreciation of the Malawi Kwacha is increasing the transport costs for imported foods and agricultural inputs needed during the November 2024 - April 2025 lean season.

Moreover, national cereal reserves are dwindling and several cereal exporting countries in the region face shortages due to El Niño induced conditions. This will have a huge impact on supply given that the current import cover is below the internationally accepted standard of less than three months. Recurrent climate shocks have left a significant number of Malawian families in need of emergency food assistance. As these shocks in Malawi become more frequent, families have little time to no time to recover. Forecasted La Niña conditions are projected to result in above-average rainfall with floods predicted in many of the drought affected districts during the November 2024 to April 2025 rainy season.

The Livelihood Coping Strategies illustrate that 29 per cent of Malawian households are employing crisis-level strategies. Negative coping mechanisms may include encouraging children to miss or leave school to engage in household chores or manual labour to supplement the household income. Children who are out of school face a higher risk of exploitation, abuse, gender-based violence and neglect. This was seen during the COVID-19 pandemic, when the number of child marriages and teenage pregnancies increased in Malawi. The Rapid Gender Assessment for El Niño (2024) further demonstrates how families facing food insecurity often place the burden of finding household necessities onto adolescents forcing girls to travel further to collect food or water increasing their vulnerability to gender-based violence (GBV) and sexual exploitation and abuse.

In many cases, especially in the Southern Region and parts of the Central Region, acute food shortages force members of households to migrate to other districts or urban centres and to neighbouring countries such as Mozambique, Tanzania and Zambia in search of food and income. This poses risks to the migrants especially women, children and the youth. Notable risks include GBV, child labour and human trafficking.

As the dry, winter season sets in, livestock are likely to be affected by shrinking pastures, reduced access to water and an increase in disease. Similarly, for aquaculture farmers, dry weather conditions will result in the drying of fishponds. This will exacerbate the food insecurity situation caused by the maize deficit as most farmers depend on livestock to mitigate the impact of crop failure. The impact of the situation will be further exacerbated as households report having to resort to destocking measures due to a lack of cash and food.

Reduced access to safe water because of drying water sources will further increase the risks of waterborne diseases, such as diarrhoea (which increases the risk of acute malnutrition) as well as other vector-borne diseases like malaria. Decreased access to water may also lead to increased protection risks, particularly for women and children who may be forced to walk longer distances to collect water. In the case of adolescent girls, longer travel times to collect water may increase school absenteeism.

Increased poverty and rising food prices have also had a direct impact on malnutrition. In the south and central regions, where El Niño-induced conditions have led to substantial crop losses, districts have reported an increase in admissions of critically ill, severely malnourished children. Recent SMART survey findings indicate that global acute malnutrition (GAM) rates have risen to 3.3 per cent compared to 1.9 per cent in 2020. In the same period, the rate of severe acute malnutrition (SAM) in children under five has increased from 0.1 per cent to 0.6 per cent. Current National Rehabilitation Unit death rates across Malawi are averaging at 9 per cent with the most severely impacted districts reporting death rates of between 10 per cent and 40 per cent.