Southern Africa: El Niño Forecast and Impact (As of August 2024)

EL NIÑO OVERVIEW AND IMPACTS

Several parts of Southern Africa have been affected by the worst mid-season dry spell in over 100 years, marred by the lowest mid-season rainfall in 40 years. This has been exacerbated by El Niño phenomenon. Six countries declared a state of emergency due to El Niño-linked severe drought, including Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. El Niño conditions have also caused heavy rains and flooding in Madagascar, Mozambique, Malawi and Zambia. These severe weather shocks have led to the displacement of thousands of people, disease outbreaks, food shortages, water scarcity and significant impacts on agriculture. More than 20 million people are experiencing crisis levels of hunger in Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Angola, Zambia, Namibia, Eswatini, Tanzania, Lesotho and Botswana, according to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), Vulnerability Assessment Committee (VAC) and Food and Nutrition Security Working Group (FNSWG) reports. More than 1.1 million children under five are facing severe acute malnutrition. The impact of the dry spell on food security is severe in a region where 70 per cent of smallholder farmers rely on rain-fed agriculture for their livelihood. Major diseases such as cholera continue to threaten millions of people. The Monkeypox (mpox) viral disease, which has been recently declared a public health emergency of international concern, is reported in the region with cases recorded in Mozambique and South Africa.

Millions of people are facing water shortages as water points have dried up, heightening the risk of water-borne diseases. Water scarcity has also impacted livestock and wildlife. Over 9,000 drought-related cattle deaths have been reported in Botswana, Namibia, Zambia, and Zimbabwe between October 2023 and February 2024. In response to these humanitarian crises, the UN and humanitarian partners launched Flash Appeals for four El Niño-affected countries, including Malawi (US$137 million), Zambia ($228 million), Zimbabwe ($429 million) and Mozambique ($222 million), aiming to reach 14.5 million people targeted.

In 2024, the Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) has allocated $25.4 million for the drought response in Southern Africa, including $4 million to Madagascar, $7.9 million to Zimbabwe, $2 million to Malawi, $3 million to Angola, $5.5 million to Zambia and $3 million to Namibia