Mongolia: 2023 Dzud Early Action & Response Plan (Dec 2022 – May 2023)

Foreword by the Resident Coordinator

Mongolia is highly vulnerable to climate change, experiencing warm temperatures, at almost three times the rate of the global average in the last 70 years. Climate change is a significant driver of the increasing frequency and severity of Dzud in Mongolia, which has had a detrimental impact on the livelihoods and food security of herders. Dzud, a hazard unique to Mongolia, is characterized by extremely harsh winters with very cold temperature, snowfall anomalies and/or storms. It is a severe winter condition following a summer drought. It is always associated with large-scale livestock mortality, either by starvation or freezing.

Since 2022, Mongolia has experienced extreme weather conditions adversely affecting the ability to stock hay and fodder for livestock for the 2022/2023 winter season. The country experienced moisture deficit during the 2022 summer season affecting 50 per cent of the national territory, particularly in western and southern parts, resulting in decline of hay yields and deterioration of pasture productivity due to overgrazing. Cultivation of fodder crops decreased in 2022, compared to 2022/2021. Due to these unfavorable weather conditions and insufficient reserves for livestock production, compounded by economic crisis due to global market distortions on fuel and food supplies, it is estimated that 80 per cent of rural households are at risk of losing their livelihoods – Mongolia being heavily dependent on the agricultural sector.

There are 213,000 people in need, in 18 Aimags or provinces, of humanitarian assistance to respond to the impact of Dzud and prevent further deterioration of their socio-economic situation. I am particularly concerned that of these, there are 53,000 vulnerable women, men, girls and boys who are in need of immediate and life-saving assistance. Hence, this Dzud Early Action and Response Plan is being launched by the HCT to assist the identified vulnerable families and provide the most needed humanitarian assistance to address their immediate basic needs and access to critical services, restore their livelihoods and prevent further impacts of Dzud.

Although Dzud is a “slow-onset disaster” but that does not mean we act slowly.. The worst is yet to come, as historically, the peak of livestock mortality experienced is from February to April. We need to constantly monitor the evolving situation and provide assistance across the continuum, from early action to response, to address humanitarian needs and prevent a major catastrophe. At a broader level, taking a humanitarian-development nexus approach is key to addressing the root causes of humanitarian needs and reduce pre-existing vulnerabilities so they do not manifest themselves at the time of the emergency.

As early as October 2022, the Humanitarian Country Team (HCT) in Mongolia has been working with the Government for a timely action for mitigating the risk of Dzud. We are very thankful and appreciative that the Government of Mongolia has taken several timely actions such as providing discounted hay and fodder to provinces at high risk, as well as additional vehicles with good mobility to local emergency departments and health centers. However, affected communities need more support and the international community has been requested to assist. Some agencies have already extended their support to respond to the impact of Dzud.

Now is the time to show international solidarity in light of this Disaster and mobilize resources to avert further deterioration of humanitarian needs in the country. Along with the whole humanitarian community, I implore your generous support to the people of Mongolia as expeditiously as possible.

TAPAN MISHRA

United Nations Resident Coordinator for Mongolia

Situation Overview

As of 1 February, approximately 70 per cent of Mongolia or a total of 22 Aimags or provinces and 310 Soums or townships, are at either high or extreme Dzud situation. This has directly affected the livelihoods of 191,000 herder households. About 87,000 of these herder households have less than 200 heads of livestock and are considered vulnerable. It is reported that about 416,560 livestock have perished as of early February. Historically, though, the peak of livestock mortality is from February to April.

Mongolian herder/pastoralists are heavily reliant on grazing their animals, such as goats, sheep, cattle, horses, yaks and camels, on open rangelands all year round. The availability of sufficient forage is dependent on favorable weather conditions for livestock to have sufficient food during the summer and gain strength to make it through upcoming cold season, as well as for herders to stock hay and fodder for same season. Herders' primary livelihood depends on their livestock, and preventing fatalities is their primary concern. However, in the summer of 2022, Mongolia experienced drought which led to poor pastures and malnourished livestock. The number of livestock entering the winter season also reached an all-time high of 71 million. This means a high number of livestock must be prevented from mortality over the winter season.

While Mongolia has had experienced several Dzuds over the years, it has become more frequent with severe impact on the rural population. Eighty percent of the total agriculture production comes from livestock, with livestock herding is the source of income for 80 per cent of the rural population. Dzud has been exacerbated by the rising prices of food, fuel and animal feed while prices of livestock are low and herder profits are declining. Prices for non-meat staple food have increased 1.7 times compared to the same period in 2019 (pre-Covid-19), and by 28 per cent compared to the same period in 2021. Prices of flour, rice, sugar, bread and cooking oil have increased by 32 per cent compared to 2021, milk by 10 per cent and vegetables such as potatoes, cabbage, carrot and onions increased by 22 per cent, respectively. The situation in Mongolia is another illustration how the war in Ukraine has caused underlying increase in prices with the sharp increase in fuel prices, with 1.4 times increase compared to 2019 and 29 per cent increase from 2021, same period. The increase of diesel fuel prices, 49 per cent year-on increase, required for trucks and heavy industrial and agricultural machinery, led to higher costs. The price of animal feed has increased by 70 per cent year-on, with wholesale prices of livestock and meat decreasing by 27 per cent from last year. Last year's winter and spring (2021/22) were relatively mild, with good pastures everywhere, resulting in low fodder purchases and stocks of herders. Due to the economic crisis, commercial banks have closed loan access to herders since May 2022, thereby limiting coping capacities, leaving herders with severe shortages of cash. In response, Otor or unusual transhumance migration has become the preferred coping strategy, with 11.5 per cent of households (21,800) and 13.3 per cent of livestock (9,500) moving in the current year. Otor comes with requests for movements to access emergency grazing reserves already exceeding existing reserves and relying on sparse, less nutritious and almost inedible annual weeds.

Additionally, snow cover has begun to form in some areas, further exacerbating the vulnerability of herders and livestock. Unfortunately, the proportion of Dzud extreme and high-risk provinces and Soums has increased rapidly in the past three months from 25 per cent to 70 per cent. Households with large herd size1 are strategically addressing the needs of their herds, restricting the breeding and reproduction of sheep and goats, as non-pregnant females are more likely to survive the winter compared to pregnant ones, due to lower metabolic requirements. However, this strategy is not an option for vulnerable herder households with smaller herds2, and many rely on reciprocity in obtaining material assistance from relatives or others at times of crisis. It is estimated that 144,343 households in 193 Soums (counties) in 11 high-risk provinces, or equivalent to 48.7 per cent (70,295 households) rely on small herds with less than 200 heads of livestock. These make up about 351,475 most vulnerable people which represents 10 per cent of the population and 30 per cent of herding households at national level, expected to be seriously affected by a high risk of Dzud. These people collectively care for 14 million livestock which constitutes 20 per cent of the current estimated national herd.

Since October, the National Agency for Environmental Monitoring and Meteorology (NAMEM) has been monitoring the anticipated extreme cold. In November, the forecast started to manifest due to precipitation and snowstorms in the central and eastern provinces. Livestock have started to perish, dwellings have been destroyed and individuals were reported missing in the snow– who were later found and hospitalized. The main roads in Arkhust, Bayandelger, Erdene, Bayanjargalan counties of Tuv province were blocked by the snow and local authorities had to clear up the snow. Consequently, a notice was issued by NAMEM to the Ministry of Food, Agriculture and the Light Industries (MOFALI) of the potential serious disruption on the performance of the energy, heating and transportation, agriculture and education sectors due to the cold phenomenon. In consultation with the Minister of Education and Science, the Capital and Ulaanbaatar City government issued an order on some measures to be taken to reduce the potential risk of weather phenomena and manage traffic jams and delays. As of November 2022, part of the precautionary measures was the directive that all levels of schools and kindergartens in the capital will be taught online, at least 60 per cent of the employees of some institutions in the capital will work from home, and certain coordination will be made to manage transportation on certain streets and roads.

The impact of Dzud is slowly but surely manifesting and it is multi-faceted. Livestock mortality due to winter events destroy the income, consumption, and asset base of pastoralist households, thereby directly threatening the livelihoods of large parts of the rural population that live from animal husbandry. Families living in Dzud risk areas are facing difficulty in accessing basic health services such as access to medicines, immunization, nutrition services and safe delivery for pregnant women, due to the limited capacity and constraints on transport and mobility in extreme weather conditions. Children living in school dormitories in Dzud risk areas have limited supply of education materials, nutritious food and hygiene products. There is also a heightened risk of gender-based violence and domestic violence due to psychological stress from loss of livelihoods and impeded access to basic services. Urgent support is required to meet the needs of herder families as well as prevent deterioration of the current situation, as it is expected that the peak of livestock mortality yet to come.