Impact of El Niño in Mozambique - 26 April 2024 [EN/PT]

HIGHLIGHTS

  • The effects of El Niño-driven rainfall shortages and above average temperatures pose a significant risk to cereals production in Mozambique.

  • 1.25 million people were already food insecure (IPC3+) in areas that have been impacted by severe drought conditions during the 2023/24 rainy and agricultural season. These people will likely see their food insecurity situation deteriorate and fall into severe and emergency food insecurity (IPC4+).

  • FEWSNET warns that Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to emerge in semiarid districts of Gaza, Inhambane, Manica, Sofala, and Tete.

  • Anticipatory actions by the Government of Mozambique, with support of humanitarian partners, are mitigating the effects of the drought, but the coverage is insufficient as compared to the needs; more resources are needed to scale-up interventions.

  • There is a window of opportunity to rescue the upcoming short planting season (May to July) and to alleviate the effects of El Niño, but it requires immediate investment. Key priorities include providing urgent and extensive support to vulnerable households to safeguard this short agricultural cycle and enhance off-season agriculture production.

SITUATION OVERVIEW

In Mozambique, the 2023/24 rainy season commenced under the influence of El Niño which predominantly manifested in persistent dryness, with many areas receiving less than half of their typical rainfall’s quantity.

According to INAM, from November 2023 to February 2024, the southern and central regions of the country registered a deficit in precipitation. In January 2024, there were more than 23 consecutive days without significant precipitation in the southern and central parts of the country. Severe seasonal deficits were recorded in Manica, Nampula, Sofala, Tete and Zambezia.

The irregular distribution of rains resulted in contrasting sowing conditions across the country. In parts of key cereal producing central provinces of Sofala and Zambezia, the onset of planting was delayed by up to three weeks. Cumulative rainfall deficits persisted, notably in Zambezia, where cropped areas received about 70 per cent of the long-term average rainfall amounts between October 2023 and January 2024. Unusually high temperatures further aggravated the situation. These weather patterns led to deteriorating vegetation conditions and crop wilting in parts of central provinces.

The first quarter of the year was marked by high temperatures in central and southern parts of the country. The situation was particularly critical in Tete province where temperatures soared 8°C above average. Higher temperatures are projected to last until the end of April.

The convergence of El Niño-induced drought, record dryness in January 2024, and anticipated food insecurity may result in below-average maize production for Mozambique in 2024. All provinces are predicted to attain yields lower than the five-year average, except for Sofala and Cabo Delgado (though conflict may impact production).

According to the last Food Security Outlook of FEWSNET, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected through September 2024 due to the negative effects of El Niño. Some Stressed (IPC Phase 2) areas may worsen to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) around August due to the expected rapid depletion of the imminent below-average harvest, limited access to income, and above-average food prices.

The drought impact analysis conducted by the WFP estimates that over 20 million people in Mozambique are residing in areas that have been affected by the drought due to El Niño

The results indicate that 2.7 million people in drought affected areas were already food insecure (IPC3+) before the impact of El Niño, and they could see their food insecurity situation further deteriorate. 1.25 million food insecure people (IPC 3+) living in districts severely impacted by drought conditions are particularly at risk to fall into severe and emergency food insecurity (IPC4+).

A post-shock assessment of El Niño affected districts will be conducted in April and May 2024. The nutritional status of women and children, food consumption scores and other food insecurity-related indicators will be assessed. The results of the assessments will inform a targeted joint response by WFP and FAO focusing on IPC3+ and targeting IPC4+ populations.