Anticipatory Action Framework: Nepal Pilot

Executive Summary

The purpose of this document is to present the framework for anticipatory action (AA) in Nepal, including the forecasting trigger (the model), the pre-agreed action plans (the delivery) and the pre-arranged financing (the money).

The objective of this pilot is to provide collective anticipatory humanitarian action to people at risk of predicted severe monsoon flooding in Nepal. The pilot will aim to provide life-saving assistance to over 80,000 people across 23 floodprone municipalities (“palikas”):

  • In eastern Nepal: Province No. 1, Sunsari district – 5 palikas; Province No. 2, Saptari district - 7 palikas
  • In western Nepal: Lumbini Province, Banke district - 3 palikas; Lumbini Province, Bardiya district – 6 palikas; Sudurpaschim Province, Kailali district - 2 palikas.

The model relies on the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) as well as the Government of Nepal’s flooding warning systems. To provide agencies with the maximum window of opportunity to deliver anticipatory action on a noregrets basis, and building on the lessons learned of the 2020 anticipatory action pilot for monsoon flooding in Bangladesh, this pilot relies on a two-step trigger system:

  • Stage I: A readiness trigger based on the GloFAS forecast, that will provide a maximum of 7 days’ lead time.

  • Stage II: An action trigger based on government system’s flood warning system and the GloFAS forecast, that will provide anywhere from 3 hours to 3 days’ lead.

Given that this pilot plans to target multiple major river basins in Nepal, not all of which are linked, the pilot relies on separate systems for each river basin: one for the Karnali, Babai, and West Rapti Basins (in western Nepal) and one for the Koshi Basin and Saptakoshi Watershed (in eastern Nepal).

The delivery of anticipatory action is time-critical. Five UN agencies – UNFPA, UNICEF, UN Women, WFP and WHO – in partnership with the Nepal Red Cross Society (NRCS) and national NGOs and in close collaboration with the federal, provincial and local authorities, will:

  • Distribute multi-purpose cash: Almost US$3.7 million will be transferred to vulnerable flood-prone households to meet their essential needs. WFP and UNICEF will provide 13,500 rupees per household. UNFPA will provide small cash top-ups to women and girls to facilitate access to obstetrics care and gender-based violence services.

  • Provide in-kind assistance: To complement the cash assistance, UN agencies will provide households with essential items to mitigate the impacts of the flood. UNICEF will distribute hygiene kits, water purification tablets, jerry cans, buckets and mugs and will install emergency toilets. UNFPA will distribute dignity kits and reproductive health kits. UN Women will provide comprehensive relief packages containing essential food and non-food items.

  • Deliver services: The pilot provides an opportunity to deploy trained personnel to provide important genderinclusive services to flood-affected households at evacuation sites and other assembly points. UNFPA and its partner NRCS will deploy female community health volunteers to promote sexual and reproductive health as well as gender-based violence services. UNICEF will deploy trained community psychosocial workers. UN Women will deploy gender and social inclusion experts. WHO will facilitate the deployment of rapid response teams and emergency medical deployment teams, and install mobile medical camps.

The money for the pilot comes from different sources, including from the Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) of up to $6.7 million. CERF financing will be released as automatically as possible immediately once the defined triggers are reached in each river basin. The pre-arranged financing agreement with CERF is in place for one severe flooding event per river basin over a two-year pilot period from the moment this framework document is pre-endorsed and pre-agreed.