Anticipatory Action Framework Dry Corridor Nicaragua

Summary

The purpose of this document is to present the framework for anticipatory action (AA) for drought in Nicaragua that builds on the overall AA Framework for the Dry Corridor that covers Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, and Nicaragua. This framework contains an overall forecasting trigger (the model), the pre-agreed activation protocol and action plans (the delivery) and the pre-arranged financing (the money). This document describes the drought in Nicaragua, the crisis timeline for 2024, the triggering system, the coordination arrangements, priority interventions per sector and the targeting criteria of the most vulnerable people. This document exposes the proposal for comprehensive and complementary actions in different relevant sectors to attend the population most vulnerable in five municipalities from Dry Corridor. The framework has a validity of two years, from March 2024.

Drought in Nicaragua

Nicaragua is a multi-hazard country, exposed to droughts, floods, volcanoes, hurricanes, storms and slow-onset events due to environmental degradation. A part of its territory is located in the Central American Dry Corridor. The "El Niño" phenomenon, associated with droughts, has been observed five times between 2009 and 2019. Prolonged droughts, increasing forest fires that destroy ecosystems, landscape and soil structure, as well as extreme weather events have caused irreversible losses in agriculture, livestock and fisheries, impacting the livelihoods of smallholders and widening inequality gaps. The analysis of future climate scenarios (100 years) developed by the Nicaraguan Institute of Territorial Studies (INETER) is especially worrying for the country, with decreases of up to 45 percent of rainfall and temperature increases of up to 4 degrees Celsius. This will lead to more intense droughts, loss of biodiversity and livelihoods, crop disruption and other foreseeable consequences in regions that are already being impacted by climate change and have the worst indicators of poverty and food insecurity.

Over the upcoming El Nino period, forecasted for 2024 and beyond, there is a significant risk of below-average rainfall in the above-mentioned areas, which could severely impact agriculture production and food security in the region. Seasonal precipitation forecasts for the rainy season (that covers mid-May through mid-October with a month-long interruption in July-Aug, the “canicula") project below-normal rainfall, adversely affecting the planting and growing of the main maize cropping season. This situation may result in reduced yields, crop losses, and an increased number of food and nutrition insecure people and overall humanitarian needs. In context of drought, the overall nutritional intake decreases, and poor households are at higher risk of suffering multiple micronutrient deficits, contributing to higher prevalence of underweight and stunting among children under five (especially for reduced ability to access food, particularly animal source foods high in caloric energy, protein, and fat). This reduces the immunity system capacity, increasing nine-fold the probability of dying from diarrhea or pneumonia.

During droughts, access to water is reduced both in terms of quantity and quality at home, in schools and in health-care-facilities thus increasing the risk of spreading respiratory diseases, and acute diarrheal diseases and other water-borne diseases, especially in children living in rural and unplanned urban dwellings. Remaining productive water points are more vulnerable to contamination and are used by a growing number of people, and the risk of over-abstraction can foster tensions between users. The increase of diseases is reinforced by poor sanitation and hygiene practices, compounded by the proliferation of vector-borne diseases in unsafe environments (including zika, dengue, malaria).