Nigeria Humanitarian Needs Overview 2024

Executive Summary

The Humanitarian Needs Overview (HNO) for 2024 presents a synopsis of humanitarian needs across Nigeria. The analysis primarily focuses on the so-called BAY states (Borno, Adamawa and Yobe) in north-east Nigeria, given the magnitude and severity of needs in this region caused by a domestic armed conflict. All the data in this document are collated as of the sector reviews held in late October 2023. Regular updates will be made to this document throughout 2024.

The HNO is based on a comprehensive needs assessment and analysis carried out in BAY states, in line with Inter-agency Standing Committee’s (IASC) guidelines. Further data collection and analysis was conducted in north-west Nigeria (Sokoto, Zamfara, Katsina, Kaduna, Jiwaga, Kebbi and Kano) with an emphasis on food insecurity and malnutrition and informing the interagency Operational Response Plan (OPR) for the north-west. Likewise, an overview of needs is provided for the rest of the country based on secondary data review. Five themes were identified as the key drivers of humanitarian needs in 2024: conflict and displacement, food insecurity and malnutrition, disease outbreaks (including cholera), floods, and camp closures and involuntary relocations and resettlement.

Fourteen years into the conflict, the humanitarian crisis in north-east Nigeria remains profound and widespread. Across Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe (BAY) states, over 7.9 million people face severe protection concerns, extreme deprivation beyond their existing poverty levels, and daily threats to their well-being. The severity and complexity of affected people’s needs have not diminished.

Vulnerabilities differ based on location, age, and displacement status, and the interplay of the main drivers of the crisis (conflict and insecurity, the impact of climate change, disease outbreaks, food insecurity and malnutrition, population movement and camp closures, economic factors, and historical underdevelopment). Women and children, particularly girls, remain the most affected, comprising 83 per cent of those in need. Borno is the most affected state, where more than half its population – 3.9 million – are classified as people in need (PiN). Adamawa and Yobe states follow with a PiN at 2.1 million and 1.9 million, respectively.

Food insecurity and malnutrition continue to be major concerns in the BAY states, where an estimated 4.4 million people are expected to have either crisis or emergency food needs in the lean season. Likewise, some 1.53 million children under five years old are expected to face acute malnutrition over the same period and about 511,800 children are expected to face severe acute malnutrition, a life-threatening condition. The number of displaced people, 2.1 million, remains high reflecting that people are reluctant to return to their places of origin where availability of basic services, livelihoods opportunities, and security are considered paramount. Please note that in the case of nutrition status, in 2023 for this HNO, the assessment was undertaken at an earlier time than in 2022 for the 2023 HNO. This may have impacted on the results with regards to a year-on-year comparison.

The severity and magnitude of needs in Borno State have remained the same and have even worsened particularly in areas with a high concentration of IDPs, such as Bama, Damboa, Dikwa, Gwoza, Maiduguri,
Monguno, and Ngala. In Adamawa and Yobe the number of people in need decreased by 10% and 6% respectively, contributing to a reduction in the overall number of people in need in 2024. This decline is found in host communities of both states. In Adamawa, this decrease is partially linked to the aftermath of the 2022 floods, which impacted over 120,000 individuals leading to an increase in the 2023 PiN estimates.In 2023, the floods were limited, coupled with some improvements in health and water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) sectors, , resulting in a reduced number of people in need. In Yobe, the reduction in people in need is primarily due to improvements in the WASH and health sectors, including more effective cholera prevention measures and enhanced water supply systems. The relative recovery of Geidem LGA from the 2021 attacks has also reduced temporary displacement in the state.

As a result of the evolving security situation and other developments in Yobe and Adamawa states, the number of people in need may have reduced in some specific sectors – for example WASH and Health, presenting opportunities for recovery and development efforts.. In Yobe and Adamawa more can be done to support the Government in restoring basic services and providing shelter for conflict-affected people. Already inadequate public infrastructure in the BAY states has been significantly impacted by conflict, reducing access to basic services. Conflict and poverty-related challenges present obstacles to infrastructure development and the consistent provision of services and humanitarian aid. To address these pressing needs, the Government has initiated a $1.5 billion project aimed at restoring deteriorating roads, bridges, and educational facilities in the region. In some parts of Borno, specifically in Maiduguri, there is potential to implement development and durable solutions projects for conflict-affected people, including the displaced, though humanitarian needs related to food insecurity and malnutrition remain high in most of the state. Adamawa states, The conflict continues to drive protection concerns in all the three states, limiting opportunities for recovery and development. High numbers of people with severe needs require lifesaving and a continued humanitarian response at scale.

The nature of the conflict has changed in the last two years, with fewer attacks on military and government installations. Non-state armed group (NSAGs) attacks targeting civilians are increasing according to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), particularly in Borno, where 540 and 634 security events were recorded in 2022 and 2023 respectively.
Protection concerns are pressing, more so for women and girls, who run a higher risk of being subject to

violence, abduction, rape, gender-based violence, forced and child marriage, and other violations of their rights. Children are also at risk of forced recruitment into armed groups, when unaccompanied and separated from families, especially children of those considered to be formerly associated or affiliated with armed groups. Women and girls still lack adequate protection, access to justice, and access to services.

In the last two years, a significant number of people have moved out of areas under the control of NSAGs or very hard to reach areas, estimated as high as 140,000 individuals surrendering to the authorities. Among these, it is reported that likely around 5 per cent are former fighters. The majority are civilians who should benefit from humanitarian assistance and have the freedom to access and receive assistance in the same way as other affected people, in addition to being included in humanitarian caseloads. Fighters and their families are required to participate in a process known as the Borno Model: a demobilisation, disarmament and reintegration and rehabilitation (DDRR) programme organised by the Borno State Government. In principle, participants should be able to receive assistance if their civilian status can be ascertained and their assessed humanitarian needs meet the criteria for receiving assistance. Limited humanitarian assistance is provided in DDRR facilities to address challenges that children face, i.e. severe acute malnutrition, as well as disease outbreaks and similar issues. Longer-term support outside the facilities should, however, be

provided by development partners and the Government as part of the official Borno Model programme.
Operational challenges persist. In Borno State, for instance, all primary supply routes for civilians, humanitarian workers, and supplies are insecure.

Partners are still unable to deliver outside major population centres due to security concerns. Though security has improved in some areas of Adamawa and Yobe states, aid organizations are still grappling with significant threats.

The persistent conflict and insecurity have severed people from their primary livelihoods, notably agricultural activities upon which 80 per cent of the population depends. Venturing outside population centres in many parts of Borno State puts people at risk of being killed, injured, kidnapped, or subjected to sexual and gender-based violence (GBV). This constitutes one of the drivers of severe food insecurity across north-east Nigeria. Women, in their quest for survival, often adopt negative coping mechanisms such as sex work. Young boys, in their desperation, become easy targets for recruitment by non-state militant groups.

Similarly, there are acute and urgent needs across the rest of Nigeria. The October Cadre Harmonise food security assessment estimates that 26.5 million people will require food assistance in 26 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) between June and

August 2024. Elsewhere, organized criminality, inter-communal violence, and natural disasters caused by extreme weather patterns are also causing widespread displacement. Major disease outbreaks in recent years, including diphtheria and cholera, are affecting millions of people, in addition to other endemic disease such as malaria. In 2022, some 4 million people were affected by flooding. In 2024, acute malnutrition is projected to affect 9 million children, of whom 2.6 million are severely acutely malnourished.

At the time the HNO was completed there has been high levels of inflation as a result of shocks, including economic reforms through the floating of the Naira and the removal of the fuel subsidy. High levels of inflation, driven in part by increasing food prices, has the potential to deepen vulnerability as well impact on humanitarian partners ability to deliver humanitarian assistance.

The HNO was developed using a revised version of the Joint and Intersectoral Analysis Framework (JIAF) – JIAF version 2.0, a global standard for the estimation and analysis of humanitarian needs and protection risks – estimating the magnitude and severity of humanitarian needs and exploring the drivers, linkages, and intersections of sector-specific needs.

For the Nigeria in-country process, the joint, overall PiN for all Local Government Areas (LGA) and population groups within the scope of the analysis were estimated using the mosaic method applied by JIAF 2.0 which comprises: (a) the highest sectoral PiN estimates at the LGA and population group levels, and (b) the sum of the highest sectoral PiN estimates, which yielded the final overall PiN estimate as the aggregate of the disaggregated PiN figures. This process is an inter-agency effort, led by an expert group that had been trained in the new methodology.

Recognising that some of the determinants of vulnerability are likely to change during the year, , updates of the HNO will be undertaken with relevant data sets. This may include the impact of high levels of inflation, including through the Cadre Harmonise, as well as nutrition assessments etc. to reflect changes in the situation.