Pakistan: Inter-Agency Monsoon Contingency Plan 2024

Background

Pakistan has become the epicenter of climate change, ranking among the top 10 countries most vulnerable to natural disasters, including floods, glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF), droughts, and others. These climate-induced disasters in Pakistan have caused fatalities, loss of livelihood and livestock, and damaged and destroyed public and private infrastructure across the country, often with significant humanitarian consequences that require adequate emergency response preparedness.

Most recently, in 2022 major floods affected around 33 million people and left 20.6 million in need of lifesaving assistance, half of whom were children. In total, 7.9 million people were displaced, while at least 664,000 individuals were placed into relief camps and informal sites.

Planning Scenario

This contingency planning scenario prioritizes the provinces most susceptible to severe flash and/or riverine flooding: Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), Punjab, and Sindh. This is based on the 2022 floods, which affected almost one third of the country, impacting human lives, property, agriculture, and infrastructure, with these four provinces most significantly impacted.

The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) forecast a seasonal outlook in 2024 of above-normal rainfall from June to August, which requires adequate contingency and preparedness measures to mitigate a high impact among the most vulnerable, especially in at-risk districts in KP, Balochistan, Punjab, and Sindh. During this season, flash or urban flooding is anticipated in hill torrent areas and plains of major cities in Sindh, Punjab, AJK, and KP due to heavy rainfall, while the extreme hydro-meteorological events over catchment areas of the major rivers of the country are likely to generate riverine floods. Also, neutral conditions in climate indicators such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are also anticipated to persist, with a tendency towards transitioning into a La Niña state at the end of the season. Additionally, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is expected to remain in a neutral phase throughout the season.

Based on the current atmospheric conditions, the climatic outlook for Pakistan is summarized as follows:

• June rainfall is projected to be close to normal in most regions of the country, except for below-normal conditions expected in Upper KP, Gilgit Baltistan (GB), and Western Balochistan.
• July is anticipated to see slightly above-normal rainfall in western regions and above-normal precipitation in eastern areas, including northeastern Punjab, southeastern Sindh, and southern Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK.) Normal rainfall is expected in the north, encompassing northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit Baltistan.
• For August, above-normal rainfall is forecasted for eastern areas, specifically Eastern Punjab and Eastern Sindh, while normal rainfall is predicted for northwestern regions.

Overall, the seasonal outlook suggests slightly above-normal rainfall for most parts of the country during July and August. However, western to northwestern areas may experience rainfall close to normal during the June to August 2024 season, while above normal precipitation is anticipated in the eastern regions of the country