Asia and the Pacific: El Niño Humanitarian Snapshot - Focus on Timor-Leste, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, and the Philippines (as of 31 October 2023)

Both an El Niño event and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phase are currently being experienced in the eastern Pacific. Model projections indicate that further warming in central to eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) are likely, suggesting that El Niño thresholds are expected to continue being exceeded through the first quarter of 2024. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reports a 73 per cent likelihood of a strong El Niño event in December, potentially reaching historical levels. The most recent occurrence of a robust El Niño event with a temperature anomaly of 1.5°C or higher took place during the winter of 2015-2016

The anticipated rainfall patterns indicated by various models reveal a heightened severity of conditions throughout the region. Specifically, Philippines, Papua New Guinea, Indonesia, and Timor-Leste stand out as countries in the Asia-Pacific region showing signs of potential immediate concern around drier conditions over the next three months. These four countries are historically susceptible to the effects of El Niño and IOD declarations. Recent analysis coming from the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) in New Zealand further stresses the need for high alert for the upcoming Southwest Pacific cyclone season.

South Asia

Afghanistan and Pakistan are expected to receive above-average rainfall, making them susceptible to potential flooding into the spring if snowpack levels are heavy

Southeast Asia

Over the next three months, southeast Asia is expected to experience normal seasonal conditions, with the only noteworthy change being a slight dip in activity below the average in the Mekong Delta. This area will warrant close monitoring and observation.

The Pacific

Classic El Niño indicators continue to manifest as expected. The South Pacific is anticipated to receive below-average rainfall, particularly concerning Vanuatu and Fiji, exhibiting solid signals.
Given their reliance on subsistence agriculture, closely monitoring the situation in both countries is strongly recommended. Palau is a cause for concern in the North Pacific due to its significant below-average rainfall readings, primarily impacting water availability in the country. Conversely, Tuvalu, Kiribati, the Republic of the Marshall Islands, and the Federated States of Micronesia are expected to encounter above-average rainfall. While these conditions may lead to the possibility of flooding, they also offer a potential reprieve, especially for regions like Kiribati and Tuvalu, which have been grappling with prolonged drought in recent years.