Experts tell committee meeting of the IDNDR that El Niño is in its dying stage

IHA/98/07
Experts tell committee meeting of the International Decade of Natural Disaster Reduction that El Niño is in its dying stage, warn that frequency and severity of natural disasters will increase.

At the 10th meeting of the Scientific and Technical Committee (STC) of the International Decade of Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR), held at the World Bank in Washington D.C., from 8 to 12 June 1998, experts from the World Meteorological Organization stated that the El Niño phenomenon shows signs of decreasing and is in its dying stage, according to most models of forecasting.

World Bank officials attending the meeting estimated that losses from the current 1997-1998 El Niño might exceed $8 billion worldwide.

The Vice President of Ecuador, Mr. Pedro Aguayo Cubillo, said during the meeting that losses in his country have been five time worse than the last extremely severe El Niño in 1982-83. Damage to the road system and the agriculture sector alone exceed $2.5 billion. Some forecasters are now predicting a new severe El Niño within five years when the reconstruction phase in Ecuador will not yet be over. It is imperative, said Mr. Cubillo that "investments in reconstruction be designed to reduce future risks and take into account highly vulnerable groups."

"Lack of prevention is the debt of development, and disasters are the unpaid bills," said one of the health experts at the meeting which reconfirmed the absolute need for improved proactive disaster prevention for the future and the need for an active international platform into next century.

The Scientific and Technical Committee also analysed the larger context of disaster and risk management in the future. The World Bank's Director of the Unit for Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development for Latin America and the Caribbean, Ms. Maritta Koch-Weser, said in her opening speech at the STC meeting: "We are eager to increase our involvement for disaster prevention and risk reduction before a disaster strikes, since it is always the poor population, our clients, who are hit the worst."

According to STC members, the severity and frequency of natural and environmental disasters and their impact on society will intensify in coming years. But progress has been achieved through natural disaster reduction strategies.

"Scientists predicted in an early stage the onset of El Niño in 1997 which led to the elaboration of mitigation strategies and measures in many affected countries as in South America. Drought management in India and Africa is improving. Southern California issued warnings to the population, who cleaned up, reinforced roofs and reduced the impact of coming storms and floods," said Mr. Robert Hamilton, Chairman of the Scientific and Technical Committee.

STC member Alberto Maturana from Chile stated: "Despite three years of drought, severe floods due to El Niño and a major earthquake, Chile has not experienced more than 24 deaths due to these disasters during the last five years, thanks to prevention and preparedness measures."

The STC requested support for the IDNDR Secretariat to enable it to discharge its specific mandate of coordinating the Decade activities. It also urged governments to become actively involved in providing the necessary financial and related support to the International Programme Forum for IDNDR, to be held in July 1999, which will help set the stage for a safer world in the 21st century through effective disaster reduction.

In its final declaration, the STC stated that with regard to disaster reduction activities in the 21st century: "We endorse the establishment of a distinct capacity in the United Nations system, with a multidisciplinary mandate and global geographic coverage, to act as a catalyst towards environmentally and socially sustainable development through effective disaster reduction."

For more information, contact Ms. Madeleine Moulin-Acevedo at the United Nations IDNDR Secretariat. Tel: 41 22 7986894; Fax: 4122 7338695; Email: madeleine moulin-acevedo@dha.unicc.org