United Nations consolidated press kit 2 on El Niño

United Nations Inter-Agency Task Force on El Niño
Press Kit No. 2
United Nations Inter-Agency Task Force on El Niño- Press Kit no. 2

1. The Scientific Outlook
WMO
UNITAR

2. The Social and Economic Outlook
The World Bank
UNDP
UNV

3. Activities of International Organizations with regard to El Niño per region and country

(FAO, OCHA, PAHO/WHO, UNDP, WFP)

Africa
Central and South America
Asia and the Pacific

4. The Red Cross and Red Crescent Society response to El Niño (per country)
June 1998

The Inter-Agency Task Force is coordinated by
The International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction Secretariat
(Mr. Wolfgang Wagner, tel: 4122 7400377; Fax: 4122 7338695;
Email: wolfgang.wagner@dha.unicc.org)

The following agencies and organisations provided information for this Press Kit

Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)
Viale delle Terme di Caracalla, 00100 Rome, Italy
Tel: 396 57971; Fax: 396 57973152
Email: GIEWSI@FAO.ORG

International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC)
P.O. Box 372, 1211 Geneva 19, Switzerland
Tel: 4122 7304222; Fax: 4122 7330395
Email: watt@ifrc.org

Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA)
Palais des Nations, CH-1211 Geneva 10, Switzerland
Tel: 4122 9171234; Fax: 4122 9170023
Email: info@dha.unicc.org

Pan American Health Organization (PAHO)
Emergency Preparedness and Disaster Relief Coordination Program
525 23rd St. N.W.; Washington D.C. 20037, USA
Tel: 202 9743522; Fax: 202 7754578
Email: Fetzerch@paho.org

The World Bank
1818 H. Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20433, USA
Tel: 202 4771234; Fax: 202 4776391
Email: AIATSENIA@WORLDBANK.ORG

United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)
Palais des Nations, CH-1211 Geneva 10, Switzerland
Tel: 4122 9799540; Fax: 4122 9799001

United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)
7, place de Fontenoy, 75352 Paris 07 SP, France
Tel: 331 45681000; Fax: 331 45671690

United Nations Institute for Training and Research (UNITAR)
Palais des Nations, 1211 Geneva 10, Switzerland
Tel: 4122 7881417; Fax: 4122 7331383
Email: cctrain@unitar.org

United Nations Volunteers Programme (UNV)
Humanitarian Relief and Liaison Office (Geneva)
Palais des Nations, 1211 Geneva 10, Switzerland
Tel: 4122 9178325; Fax: 4122 9799065
Email: unvhru@unv.org

World Food Programme (WFP)
11-13 Chemin des Anemones, CH-1219 Geneva, Switzerland
Tel 4122 9799567; Fax: 4122 9799018
Email: christiane.berthiaume@wfp.org

World Health Organization (WHO)
20 Avenue Appia, 1211 Geneva 27, Switzerland
Tel 4122 7912111; Fax: 4122 7910746
Email: slooffr@who.ch

World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
41, avenue Guiuseppe-Motta
P.O. Box 2300, 1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland
Tel: 4122 7308315; Fax: 4122 7332829
Email: gorre-dale_e@gateway.wmo.ch

The Scientific Outlook

1. Summary information on the 1997/98 El Niño by WMO

WMO provides the UN system with the science and technology required to understand, observe and predict El Niño. It also provides regular updates regarding the current state and the projected course of the 1997/98 El Niño event.

The list of countries provided by IDNDR summarizes the affected countries. From region to region, the effects have included droughts, floods, excessive heat and cold, and reduced and increased storm activity. It should be noted, however, that not all extreme climate and weather events included in the figure or that have occurred around the globe in the past several months can be directly associated with the El Niño Identifying those that were, is a task for the climate research community.

The major objective of the UN Inter Agency Task Team on El Niño is to provide a coordinated response to the real and perceived threats posed by the 1997/98 El Niño event. WMO activities relevant to these initiatives are briefly highlighted.

Through the World Weather Watch system and other networks, WMO provides day to day observations of the global climate system and also the means for exchanging weather data and climate information between nations. Such data are used to monitor the current state of El Niño and to determine the initial state from which to predict the future course of El Niño. In addition, WMO is coordinating some special observation programmes for monitoring this El Niño event.

WMO is cooperating with several research institutions to increase understanding and predictive capabilities of seasonal climate variability, including El Niño and its associated climate anomalies. It is through research efforts such as the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Programme of 1985-94, that our current ability to monitor, understand, detect and predict El Niño is derived. A new research initiative on Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) has been established to determine the limits on our ability to predict the climate system on time scales of seasons to a century.

United Nations Inter-Agency Task Force on El Niño - Press Kit No. 2

The routine monitoring and prediction of El Niño, together with the application of strategies to mitigate its damaging impacts, require a new generation of science and technological capabilities. Such capabilities require a sound resource base, which is often not available in developing countries. Most WMO programmes include capacity building components that encourage and arrange for technology transfer to developing countries.

To ensure the rapid application of recent advancements in communication and climate prediction science, WMO has developed a programme known as Climate Information and Prediction Services (CLIPS). The prime objectives are to:

i) demonstrate the value and socio-economic benefits of climate information and prediction services,

ii) provide an international frame work to enhance and promote climate information and prediction,

iii) encourage the development of operational climate prediction, and

iv) facilitate the development and strengthening of a global network of regional/national climate centres.

Several efforts have been undertaken by WMO through CLIPS and other programmes to help nations minimise the severe impacts of the 1997/98 El Niño. Included amongst these is the establishment of a demonstration project at the African Centre for Meteorological Applications in Development (ACMAD) in Niamey, Niger. WMO has also co-hosted and organized multi-disciplinary climate outlook fora in several countries of the world to provide regional information on the current state of El Niño and future expectations. Such fora have been used to make preliminary assessments of the socio-economic implications of the projected El Niño signals.

WMO has also been publishing a monthly El Niño Update for distribution to UN agencies and through the NMHSs of its Member Countries to the media worldwide.

The UN Inter-Agency Task Force on El Niño is reviewing the 1997/98 El Niño in a dual approach: a scientific and technical component, and a socioeconomic impacts and response component. WMO is leading the first part, with respect to the science and technology of understanding, observing and predicting the El Niño phenomenon, and the related meteorological and hydrological impacts.

The Scientific and Technological Retrospective of the 1997-98 ENSO Event is being coordinated under the Climate Agenda in collaboration with partner agencies. The contributors to the S&T Retrospective will encompass:

National Meteorological and Hydrological Services,

international scientific programmes within the meteorological and oceanographic disciplines,

international operational programmes with responsibilities for monitoring and prediction of climate,

regional organisations co-operating in climate activities,

major users of climate information.

The overall objectives of the S&T Retrospective are to evaluate how well the internationally co-United Nations Inter-Agency Task Force on El Niño - Press Kit No. 2 ordinated systems performed during the 1997-98 ENSO, and to identify priorities and new initiatives for the future. The ability of national governments, through their respective National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, to take advantage of available information and improve their strategies to mitigate impacts is an important consideration. The broad approach, therefore, is to document five key issues:

• A description of the 1997-98 ENSO event
• Major international programmes in place for understanding, observing and predicting climate variability on seasonal to inter-annual timescales,
• Performance of climate monitoring systems during 1997-98,
• Scientific evaluation of 1997-98 climate predictions, and
• Sources of authoritative information for public policy and economic decision making.

The Scientific Outlook

2. An Example of a Research Programme - UNITAR’s Climate Change
Programme

Within UNITAR’s Climate Change Programme, CC:TRAIN, is a three-year GEF and Swiss funded UNDP programme executed by the United Nations Institute for Training and Research (UNITAR) in close collaboration with the Climate Change Secretariat. The programme is working with 21 developing countries to prepare their national communications as required under Article 12 of the Convention in Africa (Benin, Chad, Senegal and Zimbabwe), Europe (Lithuania) Latin America and the Caribbean Region (Bolivia, Cuba, Ecuador, Paraguay and Peru) and the Pacific Region in the context of the Pacific Islands Climate Change Assistance Programme - PICCAP (Cook Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Papau New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, Vanuatu and Western Samoa). The countries are receiving financial and/or technical support from the programme to fulfill their commitments under the Convention.

While El Niño is an international phenomenon known to have been occurring for the last 100 years its impacts have been better perceived and perhaps more pronounced in recent years. The link between El Niño and climate change is under increasing scientific investigation. Even so, work conducted in climate change and climate related impacts is becoming more important and useful in national planning and development. UNITAR’s Climate Change programme is committed to a broad approach and perspective focused by the needs of countries to integrate climate related work in the pursuit of sustainable development.

UNITAR’s country team approach, the network of regional partner institutions approach and the development of standardized and exchangeable training materials, namely the CC:TRAIN Training Package on Assessing Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change, could be of particular interest to users of this Information Kit. The country team could be an important vehicle in developing countries for the dissemination of information on El Niño and its impacts., the regional partner institutions could provide such information in regional forums, and the widely disseminated training and awareness raising materials developed by the programme could systematically incorporate information on El Niño.

United Nations Inter-Agency Task Force on El Niño - Press Kit No. 2

CC:TRAIN applies a country team approach. This approach involves inviting the national government to designate an agency to host a team of sectoral representatives and national experts which could undertake country studies and facilitate policy and decision-making on climate change issues. During the programme, the country team is trained, and supported financially and technically to undertake analytical studies on climate change issues. In addition, a national workshop on climate change and the UNFCCC is conducted and the programme supports a series of national workshops and conferences, consultative meetings and public participation activities throughout the process which feeds into the drafting on a national strategy to implement the UNFCCC.

In order to provide timely and relevant technical assistance, the programme employs a network of regional partner institutions. The regional partners spearhead the implementation of CC:TRAIN in the participating countries, implement training workshops, and provide technical assistance in their respective regions. In Africa, the regional partner is Environement et Développement du Tiers-Monde (ENDA-TM), a non-governmental organization focusing on energy and development issues based in Dakar, Senegal. In Latin America and the Caribbean, the regional partner is the Fundación Futuro Latinoamericano (FFLA), a non-governmental organization focusing on issues on sustainable development based in Quito. In the Pacific region, the regional partner institution is the South Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP) based in Apia, Western Samoa.

The network of regional partners work with each other and international expert institutions to develop standardized and exchangeable training and technical resources using a common training development methodology. The materials and resources developed under the CC:TRAIN programme are based on guidance developed by other organizations such as the IPCC, UNEP, and the US Country Studies Programme. Six volumes are currently available, each in English, French and Spanish.

One of six such package developed, the CC:TRAIN Training Package on Assessing Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change focuses on the effects of the impacts of climate change and how countries might adapt to them. This package is used to train technical experts (primarily, members of country teams as identified by the CC:TRAIN process) on how to conduct, organize and execute a vulnerability and adaptation assessment using internationally recognized guidelines. Developed by the Center for Environmental and Resource Studies (CEARS) and reviewed by UNEP, the package includes exercises to provide hands-on learning based on real cases. Computer software used to simulate the effects of climate change and decision making responses within a hypothetical country also comes with the package. Plans to include a section on El Niño and its impacts are underway.

To view or download copies of the above mentioned training packages please visit the CC:TRAIN Library web site at www.unitar.org/cctrain. For additional information please contact Gao Pronove or Stephen Gold at UNITAR’s Climate Change Programme.

The Social and Economic Outlook

United Nations Inter-Agency Task Force on El Niño - Press kit no. 2

1. El Niño and The World Bank

According to the World Bank the current El Niño phenomenon has renewed the focus on disaster prevention and mitigation strategies as well as on the use of science and technology to provide advance forecasting or early warning systems of both flood and drought conditions.

The Regional Unit of the World Bank for Latin America and the Caribbean region has, or is taking, a number of initiatives to help improve disaster preparedness in its member countries:

Putting in place rapidly approximately US$300 million El Niño emergency financing for both prevention and reconstruction in Peru, Ecuador, Argentina, Bolivia and Paraguay; these operations contain small but important components to strengthen disaster preparedness;

Establishing a working group in the region to serve as a focal point to accumulate and disseminate best practices;

External partnerships with the scientific community as well as with other specialized entities (PAHO, OAS, UN Agencies):

Preparing a database and worldwide web site to link up with existing disaster management resources both in the U.S. and internationally.

El Niño Related Operations in LAC ($ millions)

More information can be obtained from:

The World Bank
Tel: 202-4735234; Fax: 202-6769373

The Social and Economic Outlook

United Nations Inter-Agency Task Force on El Niño - Press Kit no. 2

2. UNDP and El Niño

Lessons learned from the recent experiences

As the immediate effects of El Niño seem to be more under control and awareness has been promoted worldwide on the need to closely monitor climate changes and to prepare for their impact, UNDP is now concentrating efforts on the medium and long term effects of the phenomenon on the human development conditions of the most vulnerable countries.

Through its network of country offices, UNDP is assessing the overall impact of the diverse situations raised by El Niño, while planning for recovery based on lessons learned during the emergency and rehabilitation stages. Options for mitigation and preparedness are being identified to suit regions and countries needs, extracted from the experience of those agencies most involved in the response phase.

The response to sudden crises allocations financed by UNDP at the request of some of the most affected countries have served the purpose of assessing secondary and indirect effects that might be expected, such as the decrease in agriculture and livestock production which is bound to have an impact on the countries macro-economic indicators and for which development co-operation may be requested. In Costa Rica, part of the recently approved allocation will be used to develop social, economic and environmental impact studies and to assist the communities in organizing themselves to address these problems. On the other hand, these operations have provided opportunities to strengthen inter-agency co-operation mainly through the Disaster Management Team (DMT) mechanism.

Important lessons have been learned. The first one that may be drawn from the countries experience is the importance of heeding the early warning call. The national authorities in Peru and Ecuador, with the support of the UNDP country offices, took notice of the early warnings and although the magnitude of the phenomenons impact may have not been exactly anticipated, both countries requested and received assistance for preparedness purposes in July 1997, before the impacts of El Niño were felt. Another lesson is that even in particularly vulnerable countries such as those in conflict or post-conflict situations, opportunities can be found to prepare for, and thus mitigate, the effects of natural disasters: In Somalia, UNDP is preparing a comprehensive programme to develop capacity for prevention, preparedness and mitigation at the community level; in the absence of regular government structures.

El Niño has also proven that neighbouring countries can collaborate join in the search for ways and means to mitigate the impact of disasters, optimizing the use of scarce human and material resources, as has been the case in Central America and Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia and Paraguay. The identification of regional or inter-country programmes may well be an option for post-El Niño development cooperation.

Finally, El Niño, with all its disastrous effects, has nevertheless helped make more evident the relation between disasters and development and, in the medium and long run, may bring the much desired indirect effect of incorporating disaster mitigation and preparedness to the overall development process.

The Social and Economic Outlook

3. United Nations Volunteers

Inter-Agency Press Kit on El Niño - Press Kit no. 2

The United Nations Volunteers (UNV) Programme has extensive experience in providing professional UNV Specialists personnel for emergency relief assistance in pre- and post-disaster management situations.

In response to requests from UN Agencies and other international humanitarian relief actors, the UNV Programme has proven capability to rapidly identify and deploy UNV Specialists to serve in a wide-range of professional categories, including such areas as disaster planning and prevention, emergency relief aid, logistical support, and training, to name a few. In addition to meeting requests for individual technical expertise, and through its co-operation with the White Helmets Initiative (WHI), UNV also deploys mixed-teams of trained international and local national personnel. In Latin America, such teams are being trained for standby regional deployment in countries worse affected by the El Niño phenomena.

Organizations who would like to avail of the services of the UNV Programme for their personnel staffing requirements for El Niño related disaster work are encouraged to contact the UNV Focal Point for the Inter-agency Task Force on El Niño.

Activities of International Organizations with regard to El Niño per region and country

(FA0, OCHA, PAHO/WHO, UNDP, WFP)

AFRICA

The good news is that there has been no drought in southern Africa. It is now far enough in the season to presume that even if a hot and dry spell occurs, the impact of El Niño will not be as severe as in 1991/1992 and in 1994/1995 in this part of the continent.

But the bad news is that, instead, exceptionally heavy rains driven by El Niño have sparked the worst floods in East Africa’s recent history, affecting mostly Somalia, northern Kenya, Ethiopia and Tanzania.

Since October 1997, exceptionally heavy rains associated with the El Niño phenomenon have caused havoc in most parts of eastern Africa, with severe floods seriously affecting food production and distribution. The floods have also caused extensive damage to crops, both in the field and in stores, as well as losses of large numbers of livestock. Severe damage has also been inflicted on the sub-region’s infrastructure (roads, bridges, rail lines), seriously disrupting the movement of goods within and between countries.

Thousands of people - mostly in Somalia - have died as a result of the heavy rains which started in October 1997. Hundreds of thousands of people have lost their homes, other their crops. More than 1.5 million people in southern Somalia and northern Kenya are suffering and are in desperate need of relief aid. WFP has appealed for US$17 million to maintain vital relief activities in the worst affected areas of these two countries.

The floods also pose a serious logistical problem not only in East Africa but also elsewhere in the region. Major roads have been washed away, making it impossible for WFP to deliver relief food by trucks into Somalia and northern Kenya. WFP is now forced to rely on expensive airlifts and air drops. Furthermore, the destruction of roads and railways in Tanzania and Kenya have complicated the delivery of food stocked in Dar-es-Salaam and Mombassa to the Great Lakes region. (FAO, WFP)

Eastern Africa

Ethiopia

In Ethiopia, production of the 1997 main season was negatively affected by unexpected heavy rains at harvest time, which followed erratic precipitation during the growing season and lower use of fertilizers. (FAO).

Unusually heavy rains and flooding began in the south-eastern parts of Ethiopia bordering Somalia and Kenya in October 1997 and lasted until the end of November, causing loss of life, displacement of a large number of people and housing damage.

So far, most of food aid has come from government-held stocks, but the authorities have also distributed WFP supplied sorghum. (WFP).

The government is currently undertaking a second assessment of food producing areas in order to determine the medium and long-term effects on agriculture, trade and national income generation. UNDP, through its Country Office, will keep abreast of the results of this assessment and will closely monitor the overall impact of the situation on the countrys human development status. (UNDP)

Eritrea

In Eritrea, the output of the 1997 cereal and pulses crop was reduced by unseasonal rains at harvest and erratic weather during the growing season. (FAO).

Kenya

In Kenya, heavy rains in the two first weeks of January, which followed two months of persistent rains, resulted in severe damage to housing and infrastructure and left many villages isolated by floods. The Government appealed for international assistance for the flood-affected areas. The rains negatively affected production of the 1997/98 secondary crop season and reduced yields of the main season cereal crops at harvest time. Commercial transport has been paralyzed resulting in food shortages, rising food and medicine prices. An outbreak of Rift Valley Fever and other animal diseases since October, associated with the rains, has resulted in substantial animal losses. WFP is airlifting and airdropping emergency food aid to 400,000 people seriously affected and in need of emergency assistance. The operation will cost US$3.63 million. (FAO and WFP).

Several parts of the country were also affected by severe droughts for which a Drought and Emergency Management Project was designed and funded by UNDP and OCHA. A longer-term proposal on drought and flood management for food security is being prepared by the Country Office, in order to address in a comprehensive manner secondary and indirect effects, mitigation and preparedness. (UNDP).

Somalia

In Somalia, torrential rains in the second half of October caused serious floods and resulted in loss of life and a poor 1997/98 secondary “Deyr” harvest. This disastrous situation followed a succession of poor harvests that has already seriously affected the country’s food security. (FAO).

In many areas of the 600 kilometers Juba river in the southern part of Somalia, the water level rose by as much as seven meters, breaking river banks in many places and completely submerging some villages.

A WFP harvest assessment conducted in March indicated that local production will be drastically reduced. WFP estimates that maize production will drop to an alarming 11% and sorghum by 50%. People in the Lower Juba and Shabelle areas are suffering intensely and will need help until the next harvest in June. One million people in Somalia are at risk. WFP is targeting 657 000 of the most vulnerable. (WFP).

Moreover, flooding occurred in a conflict area and has badly damaged whatever little social infrastructure had recently been built. In November, UNDP approved an allocation to cover relief operations and to coordinate the formulation of an international appeal which resulted in pledges totaling USD 15 million for rescue and relief operations. The appeal and its implementation was coordinated through an inter-agency team chaired by the UNICEF Representative and managed through the Somali Aid Coordination body which comprises UN agencies, donors and NGOs. A second appeal was launched in December for rehabilitation and reconstruction purposes and a comprehensive preparedness programme for recurrent disasters (floods, droughts and cholera) is being prepared for UNDP financing. For the implementation of this new phase, UNDP will build on the experiences and lessons from phase I and will face the challenge to develop capacity for prevention, preparedness and mitigation at the community level in the absence of regular government structures, strengthening local coping mechanisms. (UNDP).

Central Africa/Great Lakes Region

With key transportation networks severely damaged by floods in Kenya and Tanzania, WFP has to struggle to find alternative roads to deliver vital food aid to Burundi and Rwanda.

Before the floods, WFP was delivering 20,000 tons of food from Tanzania and 13,000 tons from Kenya each month - enough to feed more than 2.5 million people per month - to the Great Lakes region. As a result of torrential rains, only half the needed amount of food aid has reached the Great Lakes region since mid-December, forcing WFP to target only the most vulnerable in Rwanda and Burundi. Food delivery has been diverted through Uganda and Zambia. But it takes twice the time to reach final destinations and only 4,000 tones can be forwarded through this route.

Because of the destruction of the road and rail networks from Tanzania due to heavy rains and flooding blamed on the El Niño phenomenon, WFP had to resort to a major airlift. On 25 March, WFP started an airlift of life-saving goods for 37 000 malnourished children in nutritional centers throughout Burundi. This was the first large-scale airlift of food to the central African country since 1994. (WFP)

Burundi

In Burundi, a significant delay in the start of the rainy season in most parts, followed by heavy rains and floods in areas reduced food production of the 1998 first crop season. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission visited the country in January/February 1998 to evaluate production of the season.

Congo

The same unsettled state of the weather that affected Somalia and Kenya in November 1997 reached the northern part of Congo: an abnormal, southward translation of the Inter-Tropical Front prompted and fueled that unsettled state resulting in very high river levels, the Congo river being a recipient for a series of small rivers. The flood plain of the whole region has thus been affected by the combined results of storm surge and river flow, leading to considerable damage to housing and crops. Parallel to the effects of the floods, a cholera epidemic was declared in December. In January, UNDP approved a project to undertake a comprehensive needs assessment of the affected areas, which was carried on jointly by the government, the UN system, NGOs and the Red cross, with a view to providing an updated, multi-sectoral picture of the situation, to propose a quick response to the short and medium term requirements and to implement rehabilitation in a coordinated and more efficient manner. (UNDP).

Rwanda

In Rwanda, yields of the 1998 first season food crops were affected by a delay of one month in the start of the rainy season and by localized weather problems. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission visited the country in January/February 1998 to evaluate production of the season. (FAO).

Tanzania

In Tanzania, heavy rains in January resulted in widespread floods, damage to infrastructure and isolation of several areas of the country. The heavy rains also resulted in localized losses of crops. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission visited the country in January 1998 to evaluate production of the 1997/98 secondary "Vuli" crops. (FAO).

Heavy rains and subsequent flooding since November 1997 have severely disrupted rail and road systems in Tanzania. Areas in the center and the north of the country are almost inaccessible. Transporting emergency food aid has become a logistical nightmare. Refugees in Kigoma have received only half ration during many weeks. (WFP).

Uganda

In Uganda, torrential rains from mid-November, mainly in eastern parts, resulted in floods, loss of life, damage to housing and infrastructure and reduced production of the 1997 second season food crops, particularly beans. (FA0).

Southern Africa

As the growing season progresses on Southern Africa and harvest is starting in some areas, there is now some optimism that the season may not be nearly as bad as initially feared because of the anticipated El Nino-induced drought. As of Mid-April 1998, crop-growing conditions have been generally favorable, with normal to above normal rainfall in most parts. (FAO).

Traditional grain shortages in some countries could be met from within the region where South Africa and Mozambique are forecast to produce surplus harvest. (WFP).

Despite localized crop damage due to excessive rains, prospects are favorable for harvests in Angola, Malawi, Mozambique Swaziland and Zambia. Prolonged dry spells affected crops in Lesotho, the southern parts of Namibia, Botswana and Zimbabwe, as well as the northern and central portions of South Africa. Planting was also reduced in some of these areas as a result of the drought warning and the late onset of rains. As harvest is likely to be delayed following later-than-usual plantings at the beginning of the season, the danger also exists that an early frost in the upcoming winter period could damage part of the crop. In Madagascar, serious damage to crops may be caused by the persistence of locusts in several parts of the country.

Assuming normal weather conditions prevail for the remainder of the season, the sub-region’s aggregate cereal production is forecast to be close to the 1997/98 relatively good level. However, in Lesotho, Botswana, Namibia, South Africa and Zimbabwe, output is anticipated to be lower than in the previous year. The major impact on food supply in the sub-region would be a reduction of exportable surpluses from South Africa and Zimbabwe to needy countries in the sub-region. FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Missions, in cooperation with SADC, are scheduled to visit some of the more vulnerable countries in April/May to review the season’s outcome and to estimate the cereal import requirements, including food aid for 1998/99. (FAO).

Southern Africa’s food supply looks secure for this year after a feared El Niño drought failed to materialize. No major crop shortfalls are expected. WFP monitors food security in Malawi, Zambia, Lesotho, Madagascar, Mozambique and Zimbabwe.

WFP will not do massive distribution but small targeted interventions to help the most vulnerable over the next few months. Plans to buy 600,000 tones of emergency food which would have cost some US$200 million will be shelved. (WFP).

Central and South America

The unusually severe impact of the El Niño phenomenon in several Latin American countries, notably Peru, Chile, Ecuador, Bolivia, Colombia, Argentina and Central America, has prompted the authorities to take swift action. Most countries have declared national or local states of emergency.

The impact of the 1997-98 El Niño phenomenon in Latin America and the Caribbean has steadily worsened, bringing drought, high temperatures, or floods to many countries. Experts and the media have called for improved planning to reduce the vulnerability of the population. The latest episode of what is technically called "El Niño/Southern Isolation" (ENSO) began in April 1997; by May 1988, when the phenomenon had practically reached its climax, the social, economic and political repercussions could only be described as catastrophic.

Most of the countries affected are low- to middle-income countries that can ill afford the damage to agriculture, cattle raising, fishing, manufacturing, the transport industry, housing, the road network and other vital infrastructure. The devastation has hit the rural and urban poor the hardest, but no one has been spared.

The unusual weather patterns that attend the rise in surface sea temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean have wreaked havoc on macroeconomic indicators, generating inflationary pressures and buffeting exchange rates and interest rates. In Ecuador, inflation increased 2.7% since the onset of the phenomenon. Brazil saw a rise of 0.49%, and Costa Rican authorities reported an increase in the consumer price index of 1.59%. In Mexico, the same indicator rose 1.17%, as reported by Costa Rica’s La Nación daily on 20 April 1998. (OCHA).

High temperatures have also had a health impact on human beings. Physicians have recommended paying greater attention to the skin, kidneys, feet, and circulatory system. The heat has led in some cases to a decrease in blood pressure, or the appearance of varicose veins among people suffering from high blood pressure. It has also multiplied the number of cases of kidney stones, diarrhea, and acute respiratory illnesses, including pneumonia. The experts have recommended drinking plenty of liquids, dressing adequately for the prevailing weather, and approaching health specialists at the first sign of any unusual symptom. In addition, the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) have reported unexpected outbreaks of cholera due to El Niño.

Several proposals for projects to improve sanitary conditions and manage and distribute water were submitted to international agencies and financial organizations--for example, projects in Bolivia in the amount of nearly US$ 4 million; in Ecuador, US$ 1 million; and in Panama, US$ 600,000. In Peru a budget of US$ 5 million was established in the health sector to deal with the ravages of El Niño. (PAHO/WHO).

In the Caribbean, the El Niño phenomenon caused a reduction in the number of hurricanes in 1997, and a much drier rainy season was forecast for 1998 and 1999. Most countries in the region have taken steps to mitigate the impact of anomalous weather patterns.

While Jamaica experienced flooding, and other Caribbean territories have experienced unseasonal rains, the Central American and Caribbean subregion was mainly affected by drought. In light of predictions that the El Niño phenomenon could cause significant reduction in rainfall this year, several Caribbean countries implemented Drought Contingency Plans to deal with such an eventuality. The Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response Agency (CDERA) has encouraged member states to respond proactively to the emergency rather than waiting passively for disaster to strike. (OCHA).

Planting of the 1998 first season cereal crops is about to start in most Central American countries. Although the first rains of the 1998 rainy season are reported in some countries, abnormally dry weather and high temperatures continue to prevail particularly along the Pacific coastal areas. This could pose a threat to the planting of the 1998 crops, as drier and warmer than normal conditions are expected to continue possibly into May. Food aid is being distributed in El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama to the affected rural population. (FAO).

In Central America, WFP is helping tackle the impact of El Niño by providing emergency supplies to 323,000 people in the most rugged areas of the drought-stricken region. (WFP).

In South America, the chief problem has been excessive rainfall, which has led to flooding in several countries, although drought has also affected some areas. Government response has focused on promoting alternative crops and issuing requests for international assistance. (OCHA).

Central America and the Caribbean

Costa Rica

In Costa Rica, information about the ENSO phenomenon prompted several organizations to respond speedily. A plan to mitigate the impact on agricultural production, developed with the support of the Regional Agricultural Cooperation Council for Central America, Mexico, and the Dominican Republic (CORECA) was soon implemented.

However, in January 1998, six different products and services were pounded with 57% price hikes due to El Niño-related scarcity, according to the Ministry of Economics, Industry and Commerce (January Inflation Report). The most recent assessment by the Ministry of Agriculture (19-20 February 1998) admits that El Niño has affected practically all farming areas in the country, forcing the government to start importing beef and beans in May. Fruit plantations in the South have suffered a 20-30% drop in crop yield, and the price of garden vegetables will likely go up in the coming months. In response, a credit programme was launched to stimulate cattle production, and in February beleaguered cattle farmers received additional government help in the transportation of various feeding supplements to drought-stricken areas, according to a report by local daily La Nación (2 March 1998).

A special ENSO Commission headed by representatives of the National Meteorological Institute was appointed even before the reappearance of El Niño. Its members, all experts in various disciplines, are entrusted with monitoring the phenomenon and issuing timely recommendations. An Emergency Information Advisory Committee has been assigned the task of coordinating all public information issued by government agencies on the El Niño phenomenon. Public information campaigns are already under way in the mass media.

A strict water rationing plan was launched in February in Greater San José in response to unusually high consumption due to the heat. The exceptionally high temperatures during the dry season affected water reserves, compounding the problem. The mass media have disseminated preventive information to the public about health hazards associated with the heat and about the need to use water rationally. Water supply authorities, in addition, have dug wells and installed pumps in the Northern region of the country. (OCHA).

In Costa Rica, intended plantings of paddy, the main cereal, are tentatively forecast to be similar to 1997 below-average level unless normal rains resume. (FAO).

In consultation with the Disaster Management Team, UNDP has prepared a project to strengthen the governments capacity to face the immediate effects of El Nino on the living conditions of the population, their economic activities and the environment. The project will also address community organization to face current and longer-term effects and will provide for specialized consultancies to assess such effects in the social, economic and environmental conditions of the affected areas. (UNDP).

Cuba

Cuba started the sugarcane harvest earlier than usual, to avoid losses by heavy rains at the peak of El Niño phenomenon in late December. Precipitation has been irregular and abnormally high temperatures have been reported. So far no damage has been reported to food crops such as potatoes and vegetables. (OCHA).

The Dominican Republic

In the Dominican Republic, the government decided to subsidize food imports, but even so price increases have been reported in some markets due to the prolonged drought. Heavy rains and flooding at the beginning of 1998 affected crops, particularly in the northern and north-western areas of the country. Considerable losses were reported to paddy and other crops (tomatoes, onions, plantains, cassava, sweet potatoes, beans and bananas). Losses have also been incurred by cash crops (tobacco). Damage to housing and infrastructure was reported. The government has requested international assistance.(OCHA).

El Salvador

According to the FAO, normal weather in February came in too late to reverse the damage caused by earlier drought to the recently harvested 1997/98 second season maize crop. A considerably below-average output has been gathered. The bean crop, by contrast, was not seriously affected by the dry weather and an average harvest has been gathered. Normal growing conditions are reported for sorghum and some improvement in production is expected to help compensate for the losses of maize.

El Salvador’s Ministry of Agriculture and other government agencies have provided affected sectors of the population with technical and financial assistance. The supply and price of maize and other basic grains have not been affected, thanks to the government’s timely adoption of measures such as ordering additional imports and improving the management of strategic reserves.

Technical assistance and other forms of support are being provided by the Government and other public institutions, and an appeal for assistance to the international community has been made by the government for the affected population in the eastern part of the country. (OCHA).

Guatemala

Unusually high temperatures, a late rainy season and poor harvests during the previous agricultural year due also to climatic factors, have had a serious impact on the food security situation of the rural poor in several parts of the country. Although the rainy season was delayed, peasants intensified their preparations for the next crop, including slashing and burning, which has resulted in fires in the northern-eastern parts of the country. Drinking water reserves are low nationwide. UNDP is monitoring the development of the situation, especially since some of the most affected areas are also resettling sites for recent returnees from Mexico. The inter-agency coordination task is presently lead by WFP (UNDP).

In Guatemala, several ministries and agencies have taken emergency measures such as offering financial assistance for the building of small-scale irrigation systems, repairing rural roads, controlling the country’s strategic grain reserves, and providing more detailed weather reports to the public.

The FAO reported a reduced output of maize, the main cereal, due to severe drought-induced losses to first season crops, and to intensive rains and flood damage to the plantings of the second season crops. Production of sorghum was also expected to be below average. The food situation was tight in rural areas, and an appeal for emergency food aid and technical assistance was made to the international community. (OCHA).

Honduras

In Honduras, power cuts and water rationing measures are being implemented by the Government because of the abnormally dry weather. Measures such as the establishment of small irrigation systems, construction of wells and distribution of pumps are also being taken by the authorities in the latter country to help cope with the effects of the phenomenon. (FAO).

Nicaragua

In Nicaragua, dry weather conditions persist but maize plantings are expected to increase considerably from last year should normal precipitation resume. (FAO).

Sudden response funds were granted and UNDP through its country office, is assessing the need for longer-term preventive and mitigation measures, which could be applicable at the sub-regional level. (UNDP).

Haiti

Haiti, the hemisphere’s poorest nation, is still suffering from inadequate food supplies, and international assistance has been necessary. (OCHA)

Average maize and paddy plantings are tentatively anticipated in 1998, assuming normal conditions prevail, in an effort to recover from last year when the crops were affected by long months of drought. Food assistance is provided by the international community. (FAO).

Jamaica

In Jamaica, heavy rains and flooding in the eastern parts of the country have resulted in severe damage to housing, infrastructure and the agricultural sector. Various food and banana crops are reported to be seriously affected. (FAO).

Panama

The AP news agency reported that, due to the drought caused by El Niño, the Panama Canal restricted the allowed drought of vessels from 12 March onward. Ships with an extreme drought will have to off-load part of their cargo. The rule will remain in place until October 1998.

Unusually high temperatures and dry conditions have affected the country, particularly the Pacific coastal provinces. Precipitation, mostly on the Atlantic coast, has been irregular and ill-distributed. About 100,000 tons of rice, the main cereal, are likely to be imported in 1998 to help meet the deficit in last year’s production. The livestock sector was also severely affected in 1997 and the situation could deteriorate in the current year due to the poor state of pastures. Only irrigated crops, such as bananas, were spared drought damage. According to the United Nations, assistance for emergency food to the affected population and the rehabilitation of agricultural activities has been requested from the international community. Several emergency measures have also been adopted by the Government to help mitigate the impact of El Niño. (OCHA).

Trinidad and Tobago

Trinidad and Tobago’s National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) organized a meeting in November 1997 to explain to the various sectors of the population the most likely adverse effects of El Niño, and to underscore the need to use water sparingly. The Meteorological Service has been issuing regular reports to the public. A drought mitigation plan has been drawn up to protect vital crops, with technical support from local agencies such as NEMA, The Water and Sewerage Authority (WASA), the Meteorological Service, and the EMA.(OCHA).

South America

With the purpose of identifying preparedness and mitigation measures to face the secondary and indirect effects of El Nino at sub-regional levels, the UNDP Office in Ecuador is supporting an inter-agency workshop on ENSO, which will take place in Guayaquil, Ecuador, on 28/29 May. The Workshop, an IDNDR initiative, will be attended by UNDP officers and disaster focal points from Bolivia, Paraguay, Peru, Ecuador and Colombia, as well as by WMO, WHO/PAHO, WFP, UNICEF, OFDA and other agencies involved in El Nino related activities. The objectives of this workshop are to promote a cross fertilization of experiences around mitigation and preparedness, to extract lessons learned and prepare a set of recommendations to foster the adoption of national strategies to reduce the impact of this phenomenon. UNDP also expects as an outcome a regional strategy on disaster mitigation, based on those identified at the national level, which it could support optimizing national and regional resources. (UNDP).

Argentina

Ambassador Sanchez Arnau explained that he had received instructions from Buenos Aires to inform OCHA in Geneva of current contingency planning efforts of his Government to contain as much as possible the effects of recent inundations due to El Niño rains in the northeastern part of Argentina.

Recent flooding hit Argentina’s Northwest, particularly Resistencia, Corrientes and Ganga. Water levels had increased in proportions not seen since the beginning of the century. About 16,000 to 18,000 persons had left these areas and 4,000 to 5,000 more were expected to have to be relocated in the next days. 400,000 people may have to evacuated from their homes if there were increased flooding. The Government has already ordered barrages to be built and is controlling the situation in terms of emergency assistance to be provided to the displaced population. The Government of Argentina is not intending to appeal for international assistance. However, future collaboration with OCHA could be discussed incase situation worsened and there would be need of technical expertise, in particular to assess water evacuation needs and sanitation requirements once the relocated population would return to their homes.(OCHA).

In the southern areas, El Niño-related humidity has been beneficial to the coarse grain crops and record outputs are anticipated. The paddy crop was also affected by El Niño induced heavy rains in the main growing regions but a bumper crop is nevertheless anticipated. (FAO).

Bolivia

As early as 12 November, 1997, the Bolivian Ministry of National Defence announced an Emergency Plan to deal with eventual disasters caused by the El Niño phenomenon. According to the local media, early estimates suggested that implementing the first phase of the plan would cost at least US $72 million, and US $99 million would be required for the implementation of all three phases. The government appealed to international donors to support its mitigation efforts, which included technological and genetic components. The National Peasant Development Fund distributed "early potato seeds", which can grow in only two months, to minimize the risk of famine.

In spite of such precautions, 70 Bolivians lost their lives on a single day, 11 February 1998, due to landslides, traffic accidents caused by bad weather, and the collapse of fragile housing. By February, the floods had affected 250,000 people and killed 200. It soon became clear that civil defence services were short on resources. (OCHA).

In February 1998 UNDP approved a project to formulate a National Disaster Emergency Plan to confront El Nino. One of the first activities of this project is the organization of a disaster management workshop for decision makers in the development planning structures, line ministries and civil defense. The main objective is to raise awareness on the need to incorporate disaster management in the mainstream of the development process, to increase preparedness to face secondary and indirect effects of El Nino and other natural disasters and to establish a permanent coordination mechanism. For the latter, the UN-DMT will be formally established during the Workshop, in which UN agencies will also participate. (UNDP).

On 15 April, the World Bank approved a US$25 million International Development Association (IDA) credit for Bolivia to help finance an El Niño Emergency Assistance Project. The principal objective of the project is to ensure the recovery of economic activity through the restoration of flood-damaged infrastructure and the restoration of agricultural production in drought areas, including the distribution of seeds and appropriate water management activities. This operation also supports measures to improve the government's capacity to plan for and manage future emergencies. (OCHA).

Brazil

Brazil’s Department of Civil Defence reported heavy winds, floods, and hail due to ENSO in the country’s Northeast around November 1997. Ironically, drought has also maimed the northern and northeastern regions of Brazil since September. Civil Defence said then that the emergency had not yet overtaken the country’s response capacity.

But that was before the onset of the devastating forest fires in the state of Roraima, a scarcely populated area that is nevertheless home to the third biggest indigenous community in the country.

At the request of the government, OCHA dispatched a United Nations Disaster Assessment and Coordination (UNDAC) team in March 1998 to assist in the joint assessment of the emergency situation and international relief requirements.

The losses of huge areas of the rain forest may cause considerable future ecological damage, including prognostic for future drought in the southern cone of America. (OCHA).

Harvesting of the 1998 maize crop is underway in the main producing southern states of the country while, in the North-East, planting of the 1998 maize crop has started under dry weather conditions. The area has been affected by prolonged dry weather associated with El Niño. Total domestic maize output is expected to decrease considerably from 1997. (FAO).

Chile

The El Niño phenomenon hit Chile with unusual force, coming as it did after several years of drought. The fears that the water supply for human consumption and hydro electrical power generation would be insufficient were unfounded, but with a vengeance: a series of storm fronts hit the country between May and September, killing 20, affecting 87,000, and causing severe damage in nine of the 13 regions of the country.

The National Civil Protection System was fully activated. President Eduardo Frei formed and chaired an Inter-ministerial Emergency Committee that remained in permanent session during the worst of the emergency. (OCHA).

Harvesting of the 1998 maize crop has started under generally normal conditions and a recovery in production from last year is currently forecast.(FAO).

Colombia

According to a special report by FAO, abnormally warm and prolonged dry conditions persisted in the north-western parts of Colombia well into the first quarter of 1998. Severe dry conditions were also reported along the Andes, in the mountain valleys, and along the Caribbean and parts of the northern Pacific coasts. Water and hydroelectric power rationing was implemented in some areas, notably the northern departments of Guajira, Magdalena and Bolivar. Similar steps were taken in the central departments of Santander, Cundinamarca, and Tolima, as well as in the departments of Cauca and Nariño in the south-west. The number of forest fires continued to increase because of the drought.

By contrast, heavy rains and flooding were reported in some Pacific coastal regions, as well as in the interior departments of Caquetá and Putumayo, where landslides also took their toll. Plantings of the 1997/98 second season cereal crops, as well as the area planted to other food and cash crops, were reduced in most parts of the country. Plantings of rainfed crops were significantly reduced principally because of farmers’ fears of losing their crops. (OCHA).

Ecuador

In Ecuador, the effects of El Niño began to be felt by October 1997. According to the local Meteorology and Hydrology Institute, rainfall levels were up more than 1,000% for the season. The Oceanographic Institute also reported that average sea level was 40 cm higher than usual. By January 1998, severe flooding had caused 88 deaths and prompted the evacuation of more than 13,000 residents, who still fare precariously in improvised shelters.

In February 1998, a landslide tore holes into the Trans-Ecuadorian Oil Pipeline. The resultant fire killed 11 and injured 100. The whereabouts of 40 people living close to the pipeline are still unknown, while half a million residents had to be evacuated. The roads along the coast were badly in need of repair, and in some places impassable due to landslides or the destruction of bridges. Damage to agricultural production has also been extensive. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, 47,000 hectares of crops have been destroyed. A shortage of basic foodstuffs such as rice forced the authorities to import grain. (OCHA).

In Ecuador, heavy rains and flooding continue all along the coastal provinces, reaching record level precipitation in various parts and causing enormous damage to housing and infrastructure, as well as to the agricultural sector. Substantial losses have also been incurred by the fishery industry. Diseases of various types are registered in many locations. Increasing number of casualties is reported. (FAO).

There was damage to 2.3% of the hospitals (7 of 299), mainly from flooding and mud, in addition to damages to sewerage and drinking water systems. (WHO/PAHO).

UNDP offered technical assistance to Civil Defense authorities of Ecuador, through an emergency preparedness and mitigation project with UNDP funding from TRAC line 1.1.3, which was approved in July 1997 for an amount of US$ 250,000.

The government had to confront an emergency demanding good coordination and multisectoral involvement and participation.

The Project’s four main components are:

1. Hazard mapping of the expected effects of El Niño phenomenon, based on historical i information, extrapolated to present conditions using satellite imagery.

2. Strengthening of the National Civil Defense System.

3. Public information and awareness campaign.

4. Improvement of the hydrometeorological monitoring network and early warning system.

The main impact indicators after seven months of execution are:

A hazard map of the effects of El Niño phenomenon, covering the coastal provinces at a scale of 1:50.000 is available for emergency planning and mitigation measures. Likewise, data from the satellite images are available for specific land use studies, to guide future rehabilitation and development.

Radio communications network of provincial Civil Defense offices have been greatly enhanced.

Radio spots and public education materials were produced and widely disseminated in high risk areas.

The National Hydrological and Meteorological Institute (INAMHI) has HF communications with their monitoring stations, located in strategic areas along the coastal area of Ecuador.

In addition, technical support was provided to assessment missions conducted by multilateral funding organizations as well as international NGOs.

The impacts of the El Niño phenomenon started in late October. One month later, torrential rainfall in several areas of the coastal region caused serious flooding in the provinces of Guayas, El Oro, Los Ríos, Manabí and Esmeraldas. In response to the emergency, an UNDAC mission was mobilized to assist damage assessment and emergency coordination activities. Six UNDAC members were deployed in three teams in the affected areas from 28 November to 12 December 1997.

The UNDAC teams strengthened the local capacity to perform disaster assessment and emergency coordination tasks in close coordination with the Civil Defense System. As a result, local disaster assessment teams, have continued performing the activities initiated by the UNDAC team, through a cost sharing agreement signed between the Government of Ecuador and UNDP.

The local assessment teams have improved the flow of information from the affected areas and they have quickly identified priority relief needs to guide the humanitarian response of the international donor community. Until mid-March 1998, close to U.S.$420,000 of emergency grants and humanitarian relief items were channeled through UNDP and the local office has also assisted government authorities to rapidly acquire necessary equipment and supplies, funded by multilateral emergency loans.

UNDP's active participation in the mitigation and response efforts have fostered inter-agency coordination under the framework of the Disaster Management Team. This coordination was also instrumental in supporting loan negotiations between the government and the World Bank, IDB and CAF (Corporación Andina de Fomento), the first of these loans became effective in December 1997.

Guyana

In Guyana, severe drought conditions in the southern areas of the country caused by El Niño have resulted in a decline in food production. The food situation is tight for approximately 500 families who are also suffering from the lack of drinkable water supply. (FAO).

On the coast, rice planting has been reduced as many of the irrigation fields have literally "dried-up", in the hinterland where the Ameridan population rely on subsistence farming the water supply has been insufficient to sustain the crops and food shortages are severe. The only water supply in some of these areas where small ponds remain is being utilized by man and animals (domestic and wild). There are approximately 26,000 persons affected. In addition, Malaria does appear to be on the increase.

The Government of Guyana declared a State of Emergency and requested the international community to assist in providing resources to address matters relating to provision of food, portable water, and fire fighting equipment.

Several agencies are making provision for food supplies. The balance of the rations which WHO received from the US government from the floods of 1996 are also being utilized.

PAHO ocally will coordinate WHO response with the Ministry of Health and UNICEF and will give emphasis to surveillance, public education and water purification supplies (chlorine bleach or water purification).

In response to early warning, the governments of Ecuador and Peru, through UNDP country offices, requested assistance for strengthening their capacity to prevent, mitigate and manage El Nino effects. Both countries received UNDP allocations for these purposes in July 1997 which were very valuable in anticipating the needs to could be created by the phenomenon.

Both countries have been extremely creative in searching for solutions to El Nino related problems and have taken a leading role in the mitigation and preparedness efforts for South America, where they are fostering the inter-country dialogue on mitigation and development, an effort which UNDP will continue to support. (UNDP).

Paraguay

In Paraguay, El Niño caused the Paraguay and Parana rivers to overflow in November 1997. Extensive flooding was still being reported in January 1998. Severe damage to housing and infrastructure was reported, and about 60 000 people were affected by the floods. Many residents had to be evacuated from Asuncion, and will remain in their new settlements (84 emergency camps) because of the likelihood of more floods in the future.

In recent years, a series of preparedness measures have been taken to mitigate the effects of flooding along the banks of both rivers, improving organizational and evacuation capacity. The World Bank and IADB have helped finance prevention and mitigation programmes that include the building of coastal defence infrastructure, pumping stations employing alternative energy sources, and higher roads in flood-prone areas.

The Municipality of Asuncion has developed a Land Use Management Plan meant to reduce flood-related hazards in a comprehensive way. Its application, together with the recent evacuations, has helped to reduce loss of life and property.

The production of milk, peanuts, cotton and sorgo has been affected by the floods. Around 100,000 lites of milk is being lost every day. (OCHA).

In Paraguay, planting of the 1998 wheat crop has started under wetter than normal conditions attributed to El Niño, while harvesting of the 1998 maize and paddy crops are well advanced. Maize output should decline from 1997 but would still remain above average while that of paddy should be close to last year's record. (FAO).

Peru

Government ministers, the Civil Defence Institute (INDECI), and local officials continue to expand their array of preventive and emergency measures. Public and private entities, with support from the United Nations, are getting together to enhance a disaster response and prevention program, nationally, regionally and locally.

Public works like the reparation of canals, ditches and infrastructure, the monitoring of river banks, and the rehabilitation of damaged roads and bridges are some of the actions taken, along with a seed distribution program in the north to reforest desert areas, taking advantage of the rains caused by El Niño.

A historic bridge built by the Incas had to be destroyed with dynamite to prevent the Chillon River, North of Lima, from overflowing its banks. In the South and the Highlands, where drought was expected, a well-drilling programme was launched, and cattle were relocated to avoid the future sacrificing of the animals.

A special flood drill was organized to reinforce response capacity in the towns of Tumbes, Piura, Lambayeque, La Libertad, Ancash and Puno. Civil Defence has distributed leaflets and cooperated with many radio and TV stations nationwide to spread information about how to confront the flooding.

The President of the Council of Ministers is in charge of the multisectoral coordination and strategic management of policies aimed at mitigating the socioeconomic impact of the El Niño phenomenon. This high level coordination takes into account the recommendations made by the Multisectoral Committee for the National Study of El Niño (ENFEN), which is integrated by technical and scientific entities, including those working in agriculture. In the health sector, a special Health Committee was set up and drafted a Contingency Plan. Vulnerable areas and actors have been identified, as have likely hazards and mitigation measures. The plan focuses on mitigation, response, rehabilitation and repairs.

Media enterprises such as Pan American Television, America Television, and several national and local radio stations have issued warnings and reported on likely weather conditions and their effect in different parts of the country. (OCHA).

Torrential rains and flooding continue in the northern coastal departments as well as in some inland parts. Severe damage to housing and infrastructure is reported. The agricultural sector has been also affected, but a detailed assessment of damage so far incurred has not yet been made. The number of casualties and injuries continues to increase. (FAO).

WHO/PAHO reported that 9.5% of the health facilities (437 of 4,576) had been damaged, of which 2% (9/443) were hospitals and 10.3% (428/4,133) other health centers. Approximately US$ 1.5 million has been spent to ensure continued operation of these facilities through the waterproofing of ceilings, installation of drainage systems, construction of channels, protection of equipment, installation of electricity generators, and the provision of alternate water supply systems. (WHO/PAHO).

Uruguay

Harvesting of the 1998 maize and paddy crops are underway and early forecasts point to record outputs. Both crops have benefited from an adequate level of humidity brought about by El Niño. (FAO).

Abnormal rainfall reportedly due to El Nino has reached a new peak causing serious flooding in several regions. Uruguay, which is not normally regarded as a disaster-prone country, considers this as the most severe catastrophe in its history. Weather forecasts indicate that adverse climate conditions affecting the country since October 1997, will persist for the next few months. This situation is of great concern especially because the winter season in the southern hemisphere is starting, disturbing the relief operations and rendering the situation even more difficult. UNDP and OCHA approved emergency response grants and the UN system continues to assess the situation, as it is bound to have a regional impact due to the unusual swelling of the Paraguay, Parana and Uruguay rivers. (UNDP).

Venezuela

In Venezuela, normal conditions are reported in the main cereal growing regions, where planting of the 1998 cereal crops is about to start. Above-average plantings are expected in view of possibly expanding exports to neighboring countries. (FAO)

Asia and the Pacific

The El Nino related weather anomalies were manifested in the region mainly by prolonged period of drought that directly increased the forest fires as well as severe flooding. Impacts of the phenomenon have brought about serious stress to ecosystems and human populations and caused tremendous economic loss in the region.

As reported in the Asian Regional Meeting on El Nino Related Crisis organised by the Asian Disaster Prevention Center in Bangkok (February), the direct losses as a result of the current El Nino event are likely to be even higher than from the previous El Nino in 1982. Over US $ 8 billion in damages have been attributed to the 1982 El Nino. In the midst of an economic crisis, the capacities of the countries, some of which are still agriculture-based economies, to deal with the ensuing crisis has been seriously hampered. Indonesia is the most affected country.

Australia

Australia has been traditionally hit by the absence of rain during El Niño periods. During the 1997-98 El Niño occurrence, giant bush fires in remote parts of Northern Australia, caused by drought conditions, have already destroyed an area of vegetation the size of England. The wet season usually lasts from October until April. Significant pats of Eastern Australia such as Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria are also suffering from drought conditions and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology expects this to last for at least a year from now. The Australian government is monitoring El Niño developments on a daily basis.

India

In India, there was localized flooding and drought, but no overall disaster. As reported by FAO, the overall prospect for grain production remains favorable.

Indonesia

The current El Niño related drought, considered to be the worst in half a century, started in early 1997 and stretched for more than ten months affecting food production and exacerbating forest fires. El Niño hightened the food crisis which, continued with the rapid deterioration of the economy, caused serious hardships to large sections of the population as well as created political turmoil. (FAO).

During the first months of this year, Indonesia witnessed the resurgence of land, bush and forest fires (including underground peat fires) which in 1997 had already affected 1.5 million Ha and caused 50 million people to have respiratory problems. Aggravated by an extended drought period, most probably linked with the El Niño phenomenon, the fires affected in particular East Kalimantan but also other areas of the country, such as Sumatra. The most affected areas are located in the southern part of East Kalimantan on the island of Borneo. This includes Samarinda and Balikpapan and the Kutai National Park located on the East coast.

By the end of April 1998, Indonesian authorities had reported over 180,000 hectares already burned in East Kalimantan (Indonesia. Land Bush and Forest Fires. Mission Report of the United Nations Disaster Assessment and Coordination Team. OCHA, Geneva. March-April 1998) since the beginning of the year and 20,000 hectares of land currently affected by fires.

Of the overall surface of the 60,000 hectares of the Bukit Suharto ecoforest, 30 percent has burned. 23 percent of the 200,000 hectares of Kutai National Park has been damaged by the fires. Close to Balikpapan, in an area of 400,000 hectares licensed to the International Timber Corporation of Indonesia (ITCI), 2.3 percent of its primary forest and 6.6 percent of the plantation has been burned.

Even though some regions have had occasional rains since the beginning of the year, East Kalimantan has been suffering from the drought until the end of April. Drought has also reduced the availability and quality of surface water, thus affecting living conditions of local people and, in some cases, disrupting fire bombing operations.

Acute ground water shortages have forced local communities to use surface water from the Mahakam River, resulting in reported water-borne diseases such as diarrhoea and cholera. National authorities and international organizations have expressed concern regarding health conditions in the area and the impact of haze on respiratory related diseases.

Fires have caused a reoccurrence of haze pollution which is, in some locations, comparable to the 1997 fires, with aerosol indices (dust particles) increasing since February 1998. Urban areas such as Samarinda, Balikpapan and Bontang, as well as the Kutai National Park, have been covered by haze.

If the fires in East Kalimantan cannot be brought under control and if dry conditions in Central and West Kalimantan persist, this may result in haze conditions as in 1997, with a severe impact on the region and population centres in Malaysia and Singapore.

Some places in Indonesia had to face with extreme decrease of food productions and water supplies. Linkages between this climate fluctuation and the spread of vector borne diseases such as cholera, dengoe and malaria have also been revealed.

It is clear that rice production has not really suffered much except in El-Niño years of 1991, 1994 and 1997. For soybean, production decreased quite significant in 1982, 1987, 1994, 1996 and 1997. Total area suffering from drought varies by crop types. The impact of El Niño on crop production can be measured accurately if the analysis is carried out using monthly data for smaller region. Maps showing areas that are sensitive to drought should be developed so that the analysis can be carried out based on the sensitivities of individual areas.(UNESCO).

According to government figures, the 1997 paddy production declined by about 4 percent to 49.1 million tons compared to the previous year. The maize crop has also been affected. A recent FAO/WFP mission to the country estimated that the 1998 paddy production is 47.5 million tons, a reduction of about 3.6 percent over last year and about 6 percent below the 1996 harvest. It was also estimated that approximately 7.5 million vulnerable people may experience acute food shortages during the upcoming dry season. (FAO).

The food deficit coincides with the country’s reduced ability to buy imported goods in the wake of the current financial crisis. The Indonesian government plans to import approximately 1.5 million tons between April and September 1998. This would leave an uncovered deficit of 2 million tons for which international assistance will be needed. (WFP).

At the request of the United Nations Resident Coordinator, a United Nations Disaster Assessment and Coordination (UNDAC) Team was dispatched by OCHA to Indonesia, from 28 March to 17 April 1998. The seven-member Team included two staff members of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). The Team assessed the impact of the fires in East Kalimantan including the regional and global implications, and evaluated the needs for complementary international assistance.

Other initiatives include a UNEP/OCHA workshop of Fire Fighting Experts organized in Geneva (April) and attended by over 20 experts, several of whom had recent experience at the fire front in Indonesia. The experts helped to identify immediate needs to control and reduce the effects and the proliferation of the fires and contributed to the formulation of an action plan to meet immediate emergency requirements by the international community, in order to enhance the efforts already taking place in Indonesia. The recommended measures consist of fire-fighting packages, training, expertise, special aircraft support, communications and coordination. According to the Action Plan formulated by the experts, 10 million US dollars are necessary to meet immediate emergency requirements. (OCHA).

In addition, WFP is preparing an appeal to help the vulnerable in the mostly drought affected areas. WFP assistance will be targeted through food-for-work community development activities, nutritional support to pregnant women and nursing mothers and young children, and general relief of free food distribution to the most vulnerable. (WFP).

Observations during the past several decades showed that during El-Niño events most parts of the country receives below-normal rainfall. The increasing greenhouse gas emission that leads to global warming is believed to be related to the increasing El-Niño's intensity and frequency. (UNESCO).

Papua New Guinea

In Papua New Guinea, a severe drought from April to November 1997 and a devastating frost at higher elevations have left the country in urgent need of food, clean water, health services, infrastructure, transport, communications and logistical support. The food situation remains tight with about 1.2 million people critically affected. (FAO).

The United Nations Resident Coordinator in Port Mores was requested by the Government of Papua New Guinea to assist in the coordination of international assistance as well as in resource mobilization and information management. As a result of the mission of a United Nations Disaster Assessment and Coordination (UNDAC) Team, a United Nations Appeal for International Assistance on behalf of the Government was launched in December 1997, seeking contributions in cash, kind and services to a total value of US $4,186,000 in order to cover non-food emergency relief needs. (OCHA).

A three-man team of World Food Programme experts is currently in PNG helping the country’s National Disaster Committee to deal with the emergency caused by the drought.(WFP).

By February 1998 rain had begun to fall. By late March 1998 the worst of the drought was over, but there is a clear need to continue assistance. Capacity building, disaster mitigation preparedness and community rehabilitation projects in water, health and food production as well as the need to resettle village communities that had moved because of the drought are priorities. (IFRC).

In an attempt to reinforce its disaster management capacity at the national level, given the magnitude of the disaster, the Government deemed necessary to create parallel structures for mitigation, in addition to the established organization mandated by the National Disaster Act and to request UNDP support to increase its capacity to manage the long-term effects of the drought. In January a project was approved with the objective to assist the government to minimize the social and economic effects of the drought by capacitating its staff in emergency management, programme planning and implementation and aid coordination. (UNDP).

Philippines

In the Philippines, reflecting reduced plantings due to drier weather conditions related to the El Niño weather anomalies, preliminary indications suggest a 13 percent decline in this year's secondary paddy output to about 4.2 million tons, and a 9 percent decline in dry season maize output to 1.7 million tons reflecting reduced plantings. (FAO).

Thailand

In Thailand, low levels of water supplies in the reservoirs associated with reduced rainfall the unseasonably high temperatures since the beginning of this year were cause for serious concern. But the negative effects on crop production have not yet materialized. (FAO).

The Red Cross and Red Crescent Response to El Niño per country

Inter-Agency Press Kit on El Niño - Press Kit no. 2

National Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies assist 3 million people affected by the El Niño phenomenon. Some of this assistance has been totally by national societies with no outside assistance, eg. USA, Argentina. Some has been with a partner Society, eg. the French and Spanish in Central and South America. The majority with the assistance of the Federation, eg. Papua New Guinea, Tanzania.

The total figure of over 3 million people assisted includes 2 million in the Philippines. This comes from the education programme, medical supplies and the initial distribution of smoke mask the National Society in the Phillippines carried out.

The final total of assisted people will only become available if a drought does occur in Southern Africa and in other areas will be declared to have been affected by El Nino. The preparedness for a drought in Southern Africa and the Sahel region continues.

International Federation of Red Cross (IFRC)
Tel: 0041 22 730 42 95; Fax: 0041 22 733 03 95
Email: watt@ifrc.org