Kenya

Kenya experienced heavy rainfall and flooding during the 2023 short rains season from October to December. The above-average rainfall and flooding driven by El Niño conditions and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole continued into January 2024, and killed at least 186 people and displaced nearly 545,600 people.  The extreme weather killed livestock, damaged farmland, health facilities, schools, water sources, destructed critical infrastructure and led to outbreaks of water and vector-borne diseases.

All these problems disrupted markets and consequently resulted in higher prices for essential goods and an increased cost of living in Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Tana River counties, which were most affected by floods. According to the Kenya Meteorological Department, wetter-than-normal conditions are expected over most parts of the country between March and May 2024 with the highest probabilities indicated in central, western, and north-western parts of the country. Apart from floods, communities in the arid and semi-arid counties (ASAL) counties are still recovering from the drought after experiencing below-average rainfall for five consecutive rainy seasons.

 Notably, some of these counties did not receive above-average rainfall during the mentioned period. Levels of malnutrition remained high in most arid counties, including Turkana, Marsabit, Mandera, Baringo, Isiolo, Wajir, Garissa, Samburu, and West Pokot with Turkana South in extremely critical phase (IPC Acute Malnutrition Phase 5). 

More than 452,000 people affected by the floods have received life-saving assistance in Garissa, Tana River, Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Marsabit, Samburu, Turkana, Baringo, Taita Taveta, Kilifi and Migori counties. However, an estimated 366, 000 people, who are currently residing in displacement sites or have returned to their areas, are in need of life-saving and livelihood support in Tana River, Garissa, Wajir, and Mandera counties. 

Humanitarian partners require approximately US$14.6 million to provide these people with life-saving and time-critical humanitarian assistance before the onset of the next rainy season (March to May 2024). 

Crop farmers, whose farms were damaged and those that missed the October to December 2023 planting season because of flooding, especially in Tana River County, are likely to face increased food insecurity and high malnutrition. While pastoralists in Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Tana River counties are staring or already experiencing an outbreak of Rift Valley Fever outbreak thus likely to affect livestock production.

An estimated 1.9 million people in Kenya are food insecure and need humanitarian assistance between February and March 2024, according to the National Drought Management Authority, a reduction from 2.7 million people in July 2023. However, the number of people facing high food insecurity is expected to reduce to about 1.2 million between April and June 2024. The climate forecast indicates warmer than average temperatures are expected over the whole country. It is also forecasted that the country will experience La Niña in October, which means humanitarian needs will persist in the country.